AP Moller-Maersk provides gloomy forecasts for 2024 ⚓

AP Moller-Maersk (MAERSKA.DK) shares are losing nearly 12% in today's session following the release of worse-than-expected quarterly results and the cancellation of a share buyback program. As Citi analysts report, the suspension of the program is negative particularly given the sharp increase in freight rates resulting from the unrest in the Red Sea. 

The company expects a slowdown in the shipping industry this year. "While the Red Sea crisis has resulted in immediate capacity constraints and a temporary increase in rates, ultimately the oversupply of capacity will lead to pricing pressure and affect our results," - CEO Vincent Clerc said. 

FORECAST FOR THE YEAR

• Global container trade +2.5% to +4.5%
• Company assumes underlying Ebitda of $1 billion to $6 billion, estimate $6.41 billion 
• Assumed Ebit loss of $5 billion to $0, estimated loss of $1.03 billion

FOURTH QUARTER RESULTS

• Ebitda $839 million, -87% y/y, estimated $1.04 billion
• Ebitda from the Ocean division $196 million, -97% y/y, estimated $419.1 million
• Ebitda from the Terminals division $303 million, +5.2% y/y, estimated $320.3 million
• Ebitda from the Towing and Maritime Services division $88 million, +7.3% y/y, estimated $71 million
• Ebitda from the Logistics and Services division $285 million, -13% y/y, estimated $338.4 million
• Ebitda margin from Ocean division 2.7% vs. 45.4% y/y, estimated 5.58%
• Ebitda margin from Logistics & Services division 8% vs. 8.5% y/y, estimated 9.21%
• Ebitda margin from the Terminals division 29.7%, estimated 33.2%
• EBIT loss of $537 million vs. profit of $5.12 billion y/y, estimated loss of $454.3 million
• Revenue $11.74 billion, -34% y/y, estimated $11.54 billion
• Shipping revenue $7.18 billion, -46% y/y, estimated $6.95 billion
• Logistics and services revenue $3.54 billion, -8.2% y/y, estimated $3.59 billion
• Terminal revenues $1.02 billion, +2% y/y, estimated $962.3 million
• Towing and marine services revenue $571 million, +0.5% y/y, estimated $553 million
• Average loaded freight rate ($/FFE) $1,925, -50% y/y, estimated $1,897

2023 RESULTS

• Ebitda $9.59 billion, -74% y/y, estimated $9.84 billion
• Revenue $51.07 billion, -37% y/y, estimated $50.94 billion
• Net income $3.91 billion, -87% y/y, estimated $3.5 billion
• Dividend per share DKK 515, estimated DKK 542.82
• Ebit $3.93 billion, -87% y/y, estimated $3.64 billion

The company's shares started today's session with a nearly 12% gap down. Source: xStation