Key takeaways
- Citi lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $112,000 to $82,000, while reducing its Ethereum forecast from $3,175 to $2,240.
- The bank cited weaker investor demand, persistent ETF outflows, and the slow pace of U.S. cryptocurrency legislation as the main reasons for its more cautious outlook.
- Bitcoin remains roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high and continues to trade below its long-term moving averages.
- Citi now expects zero net inflows into crypto ETFs over the next year, compared with its previous forecast of $10 billion in net inflows.
- In its recession scenario, Citi sees Bitcoin falling to $53,000, implying roughly 15% downside from current prices.
Bitcoin (D1)
Bitcoin has experienced three major bearish impulses since the autumn of 2025. In each of the previous two declines, the price eventually recovered above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, which in the current cycle would imply a rebound toward approximately $67,000. The main resistance levels are now the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $73,000 and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA200), shown by the red line, currently located around $77,000. Initial support remains in the $57,000–58,000 zone, where buyers stepped in at the turn of June and July. Today's weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report, showing payroll growth of just under 60,000 jobs versus expectations of more than 100,000, provided an additional short-term catalyst for Bitcoin's rebound.
Source: xStation 5
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