16:30 - EIA, change in U.S. oil inventories:
- Crude oil inventories: -8.26M (Expected: -3M; Previous: -7.23M)
- Gasoline inventories: -0.91M (Expected: -1.4M; Previous: +0.19M)
- Distillate inventories: +0.95M (Expected: -0.2M; Previous: -0.2M)
The release shows short-term growth impulse for oil. The key signal is the combination of a large drop in crude imports and very high refinery runs, which results in sharp decline in commercial inventories.
The U.S. reserve buffer is becoming critical at a time when the market is already pricing in the best possible scenarios regarding the Iran-U.S. conflict.
The sharp inventory draw is a combination of a steep fall in crude imports, down by 754k barrels per day, and strong refinery utilization: crude runs rose to 17.2M barrels per day, and refinery utilization reached 96.7%.
U.S. commercial crude inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell by 8.3M barrels to 418.2M barrels, already about 6% below the five-year average.
- Gasoline inventories fell by 0.9M barrels and are also about 6% below the five-year average.
- Distillate inventories rose by 1.0M barrels, but remain as much as 13% below the five-year average.
- Total crude inventories including the SPR fell by 17.2M barrels, with the strategic reserve alone down by 8.9M barrels. Although the decline is large, most of it is not “market-driven.”
- The decline in commercial crude inventories is visible in two key regions: the Gulf Coast (down about 4.8M barrels) and the Midwest (down about 4.5M barrels).
The EIA also assumes that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed in the short term, and tanker traffic only gradually returns from Q3 2026, while fuller normalization of production and flows may take until 2027. The agency also estimated very large global inventory declines in Q2 and Q3 2026, and a drop in OECD inventories to the lowest levels since 2003.
OIL (D1)
The RSI on oil contracts is currently in extreme overbought territory (around 30). Price bounced off the 78.6% Fibonacci level and may attempt to move back above the 200 EMA. If sellers shift into consolidation around these levels, the next target could be around $87. Source: xStation5.
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