ECB keeps interest rates unchanged at 2% while monitoring other central banks. The bank revises forecasts for economic growth and inflation but not pre-committing to a specific rate path. Bank highlighted that isdetermined to keep inflation at target. Middle East conflict is creating upside risks to inflation and markets are treating Middle East tensions as an energy shock.
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2028 inflation (ex food and energy) seen at 2.1% vs 2% previously
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GDP growth forecast at 0.9% vs 1.2% previously
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ECB: 2027 GDP growth at 1.3% (vs 1.4% previously)
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ECB: 2028 GDP growth at 1.4% (unchanged vs prior 1.4%)
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ECB: 2026 inflation at 2.8% as energy prices surge
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ECB: data-dependent approach; transmission of monetary policy remains strong
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ECB: policy implications depend on intensity and duration of the conflict
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ECB: well positioned to navigate current uncertainty
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ECB: long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored
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ECB keeps three key interest rates unchanged
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ECB: economy has shown resilience in recent quarters
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ECB: war raises inflation risks while dampening growth outlook
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ECB: data-dependent approach will help set policy as needed
EURUSD slighty loses after the decision and statement, which signals that oil surge poses high risk not only to inflation but also for the Eurozone economic growth.
Source: xStation5
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