A Summary of September's FED meeting minutes:
- Slight policy division but still dovish. While a few FOMC participants argued that no rate cut was needed in September, the majority agreed that further easing could be appropriate later this year, meeting the market's expectations.
- Despite that, most officials emphasized upside risks to inflation, noting that price pressures remain elevated even as inflation expectations appear well anchored. Return to the target is slow and gradual.
- The Committee observed a gradual but noticeable cooling in labor demand and wage growth, with some members warning about risks to employment
- "Around half" of the FED officials see another two cuts this year alone
- "Several" members of the FOMC mention that a substantial share of the pressure onto job market is a result of AI
- "A couple" of members noticed that immigration restriction has eased some of the inflationary pressures
- "Several" officials stressed the importance of monitoring reserve levels and broader financial conditions, suggesting balance sheet management will remain a focus to ensure ample liquidity. Mentioning that as it is right now, "Bank Reserves look abundant"
- A number of participants noted that the current policy stance may not be particularly restrictive, implying that the real rate environment could still support growth, even as the Fed balances inflation risks against the need to sustain economic momentum.
Source: xstation5
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