08:00 AM, United Kingdom, monthly GDP report:
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UK GDP Estimate YoY Actual 1.3% (Forecast 1.2%, Previous 1.2%)
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UK GDP Estimate MoM Actual 0.1% (Forecast 0%, Previous -0.1%)
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UK Manufacturing Production MoM Actual 0.1% (Forecast -0.2%, Previous 0.4%)
The UK economy continues its steady, post-recession expansion, marking its sixth consecutive month of rolling three-month growth. While the broader trend remains highly positive, momentum slowed slightly heading into the summer, influenced by global supply chain disruptions stemming from the geopolitical conflict in Iran.
Figure 1: Contributions to three-month GDP growth, UK, May 2025 to May 2026
Source: Gross domestic product (GDP) monthly estimate from the Office for National Statistics
Key Performance & Sector Breakdown
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Overall GDP: Grew 0.7% in the three months to May 2026 (down slightly from 0.8% in April), but managed a modest 0.1% tick-up in the month of May itself.
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Services (The Growth Engine): Grew 0.7% in the three months to May. Growth was powered by Information & Communication (up 2.5%) and professional services—specifically scientific R&D (up 5.1% in May), driven by medical sciences.
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Production & Manufacturing: Rose 0.1% over the three months. Manufacturing was the standout sub-sector (up 1.6%), led by pharmaceuticals. However, this was weighed down by sharp declines in energy and water utilities.
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Construction: Grew 1.6% over the three months, buoyed by private commercial projects. However, it contracted 0.8% in May, dragged down by a 5% drop in private housing repair and maintenance.
The pound reacted positively to the reading, though it wasn't able to break out of the current range between 1,3520 and 1,3550. GBPUSD is tradining closely to the 10-hour exponential moving average (EMA10 on an H1 chart; yellow), slowing down after dynamic gains thruought the yesterday's session.
Source: xStation5
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