Chart of the Day 🚩 EURUSD Drops to May 2025 Levels as German Industrial Production Slide (06.10.2026)

German industrial orders fell by 10.6% month-on-month in August, compared with analysts’ expectations for a 1% decline and a 2.5% increase in July. EUR/USD has resumed its decline and is trading at its lowest level since May 19, 2025 following the release, which raises serious questions about the outlook for the eurozone’s largest economy. The main reason for the sharp drop was a collapse in large orders for aircraft, ships, railway rolling stock and military vehicles.

• The “other transport equipment” category recorded a 61.5% month-on-month decline in orders, after more than doubling in July on the back of exceptionally large contracts. Excluding large-scale orders, new industrial orders fell by just 0.1% month-on-month in August.
• The three-month comparison points to a more stable picture than the headline August reading. New orders in the June–August period were 1.3% higher than in the previous three months.
• July data were revised higher: orders ultimately increased by 3.2% month-on-month, compared with the initially reported 2.5%.
• Foreign orders fell by 5.4% month-on-month in August. Orders from the eurozone also declined by 5.4%, while orders from outside the eurozone fell by 5.5%.
• Domestic demand was even weaker, with orders from within Germany falling by 17.3% month-on-month. This shows that, beyond the impact of large-scale contracts, weak domestic demand remains a significant risk for German industry.
• French industrial production also surprised to the downside, falling by 0.3% month-on-month, compared with expectations for a 0.2% increase after a 0.4% decline in the previous month.

EURUSD (H1, D1 interval)

Source: xStation5

Source: xStation5