BREAKING: U.S. retail sales above expectations! EUR/USD is gaining!

Retail Sales Results for February

• Retail sales (m/m): current 0,6% (forecast: 0.5%; previous: -0.2%)
• Retail sales ex autos (m/m): current 0,5% (forecast: 0.3%; previous: 0.0%)
• Retail sales ex autos and fuel (m/m): current 0,4% (previous: 0.3%)

Why is this reading important?

Retail sales are one of the key indicators of consumer health in the United States, which accounts for the majority of economic growth. The data—especially excluding autos and fuel—helps assess the true strength of demand and the current pace of economic activity. Sustained growth in retail sales points to consumer resilience despite high interest rates. From the Federal Reserve’s perspective, this reading influences the assessment of demand-side pressures and expectations regarding future rate cuts. For financial markets, it shapes valuations of the dollar, bonds, and equities, while also reducing concerns about a sharp economic slowdown.

Current Data

February retail sales data in the U.S. came in better than expected and point to a clear rebound in consumer activity after a weaker start to the year. Overall sales rose by 0.6 percent month over month, exceeding forecasts of 0.5 percent, while January’s reading was revised downward to 0.1 percent in negative territory, which further highlights the scale of the improvement.

An even more optimistic picture emerges from the core data, as sales excluding automobiles increased by 0.5 percent compared with expectations of 0.3 percent, suggesting solid and broadly based consumer demand. Likewise, so called core retail sales, meaning sales excluding both cars and fuel, rose by 0.4 percent, with the previous month revised down to 0.2 percent, confirming a genuine acceleration in consumption.

This reading predates the recent tensions related to Iran, meaning it does not account for the potential impact of geopolitical factors on consumer sentiment and economic activity.