Ahead of key U.S. macro releases and the U.S. Supreme Court’s tariff decision, sentiment around U.S. equity indices looks far from optimistic. Despite yesterday’s encouraging CPI print, markets largely brushed it aside and equities closed lower. Nasdaq 100 futures (US100) are down more than 0.5%, while the VIX is up around 3%. If US100 fails to reclaim 25,800 quickly, bulls may struggle to sustain upside momentum in the near term. The index has been rejected four times recently near the 26,000 area and has now slipped below two key moving averages, the 50- and 200-period EMAs; RSI is sliding toward 35, though it has not yet entered oversold territory.
Following earnings, Wells Fargo shares are down nearly 1.5%, while Bank of America is slightly higher. So far, bank results have been underwhelming for Wall Street—JPMorgan fell more than 4% yesterday. Attention now shifts to 12:30 PM GMT (US PPI and retail sales) and later in the afternoon, when around 2 PM GMT the Supreme Court may deliver its ruling on tariffs. In addition, markets could react “allergically” to any scenario involving U.S. intervention in Iran, which would raise overall geopolitical risk and could lift oil prices in the short term. Such a backdrop could complicate the Federal Reserve’s path, reinforcing the case for keeping rates unchanged for longer. On the other hand, a move back above 28,000 could trigger another leg higher.
Source: xStation5
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