Bitcoin trades at $98,800, down 2.6% as markets digest the complex implications of Trump's multi-front trade policy. The cryptocurrency experienced dramatic swings, initially plummeting to $90,700 following tariff announcements on Mexico and Canada, before surging to $102,500 on news of their postponement, and subsequently retreating on Chinese tariff implementation.
Trade War Volatility
The cryptocurrency market demonstrated its sensitivity to geopolitical developments with a rollercoaster trading session. Bitcoin's swift recovery from $90,700 to $102,500 following the Mexico/Canada tariff postponement highlighted the market's responsiveness to policy shifts, while the subsequent decline on Chinese tariff news underscores the asset's continued correlation with broader risk sentiment.
Institutional Dynamics
A notable development is Bitcoin's market dominance surging above 60% - the highest since March 2021 - as traders seek refuge in the largest cryptocurrency amid broader market turbulence. Smaller tokens faced steeper declines.
Sovereign Wealth Fund Initiative
Trump's executive order directing the creation of a US sovereign wealth fund has sparked speculation about potential Bitcoin inclusion. While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick, both known for their crypto-friendly stances, will lead the initiative, the fund's actual cryptocurrency strategy remains uncertain.
Market Structure
Leveraged positions faced significant pressure, particularly in the Ethereum market, where traders were caught off guard by a 27% intraday plunge before a substantial recovery. The episode highlights the continued prevalence of leverage in crypto markets despite increasing institutional participation. This paired with outflows from Bitcoin ETFs.
Bitcoin (D1 Interval)
Bitcoin is trading below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The first resistance is set at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, a zone where breakouts have often led to corrections and trend reversals. Bears, on the other hand, will target the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which has acted as support since November. If successful, a retest of yesterday's low at $90,700 could be in play. The RSI is showing signs of bearish divergence, while the MACD is tightening.
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