The U.S. dollar has strengthened significantly in recent days, and hawkish revisions to Federal Reserve projections have become the primary catalyst behind the decline in the world's most important currency pair. Notably, EUR/USD has continued to fall even though the European Central Bank recently delivered a 25-basis-point rate hike. This suggests that the move is being driven by more than just interest-rate expectations.
Investors are increasingly focused on the divergence between the U.S. and eurozone economies. In the United States, key indicators such as ISM surveys, PMI data, and Nonfarm Payrolls continue to point to relatively solid economic growth. By contrast, the eurozone appears stuck in what could be described as "stable stagnation." Across Europe, risks remain tilted to the downside due to ongoing disruptions in energy markets and persistent weakness in manufacturing, which remains an important contributor to regional growth. Today German Ifo Business Climate data at 9 AM GMT can move the pair.
EUR/USD Chart (D1, H1)
EUR/USD has fallen toward the 1.135 area, signaling a reversal into a bearish trend. The pair is now trading significantly below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA200, red line), which is located near 1.16 and reinforced by several important historical price reactions.
The pair has now posted nearly five consecutive losing sessions, with the biggest catalyst for the selloff being the Federal Reserve's shift toward a more hawkish policy outlook.
Source: xStation5
Looking at the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD is currently mirroring the previous correction almost point for point. The key question is whether the strong downside momentum is beginning to fade. If selling pressure starts to ease around current levels, the decline could slow and allow for a rebound toward 1.14, where the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA50, orange line) is currently located.
Source: xStation5
Daily Summary: Will the S&P 500 close the week with a loss❓Find out what drove the market today ⬇️
Three Markets to Watch Next Week: EURUSD, Gold, S&P 500 (26.06.2026)
Fed's Kashkari says AI will force a rate hike; EURUSD and USD reverse early moves ❗
University of Michigan sentiments lower than expected
The material on this page does not constitute as financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs.
All the information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyses published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is provided for information purposes only and should in no event be interpreted as an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of legal or fiscal nature.
Any investment decisions you make shall be based exclusively on your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs. Any decision to act on information published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is entirely at your own risk. You are solely responsible for such decisions.
If you are in doubt or are not sure that you understand a particular product, instrument, service, or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading.
Investing in OTC Derivatives carries a high degree of risk, as they are leveraged based products and often small movements in the market could lead to much larger movements in the value of your investment and this could work against you or for you. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary, seek independent advice.
