Chart of the day: silver (31.12.2025)

Silver is falling again after yesterday’s brief rebound. The price is currently down 5.30% to 72.130 USD, testing both the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the latest upward move and the 50-period SMA on the H4 interval. The pullback is a continuation of Monday’s sell-off linked to higher margin requirements — the increase in the maintenance margin on COMEX triggered a rapid decline of up to 15% from peak to trough. Despite elevated volatility, speculative positioning remains relatively limited, while both supply and demand continue to display high inelasticity. Structural demand from photovoltaics and electronics — including AI-related applications — remains strong. Estimates indicate that meaningful demand destruction in the solar sector would only emerge at prices above roughly 130 USD/oz. On the supply side, production growth is constrained, as silver is predominantly a by-product of mining other metals, and recycling is increasing only gradually.

From a broader market perspective, long-term fundamentals remain supportive; however, the latest upward wave was exceptionally steep, creating room for a deeper short-term correction alongside renewed testing of key technical levels. China’s decision to tighten export controls — effectively elevating silver to the status of a strategic commodity — increased interest in the physical market and contributed to earlier price gains, with buyers in Asia paying premiums above spot. At current levels, near key support, restoring bullish momentum would require a daily close above the 23.6% retracement; failure to defend this area — especially in combination with a test of the 50-SMA on H4 — may signal a short-term trend reversal.