Arabica futures on ICE (COFFEE) lose today amid profit-taking and long liquidation, despite StoneX cutting Brazil production forecast
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2025/26 total crop now seen at 62.3m bags (-3.4% vs. prior estimate, -5.4% y/y).
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Arabica output slashed to 36.5m bags (-18.4% y/y) on disappointing yields.
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Robusta at record 25.8m bags (+21.9% y/y), aided by irrigation and favorable weather.
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Last year’s drought hammered Arabica yield, but Robusta benefited from intensive irrigation & acreage expansion.
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However, StoneX sees 2026/27 Arabica crop outlook brighter – flowering starts in ~1 month; rains in Nov–Mar rejuvenated trees, suggesting recovery next cycle.
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Frost impact in Minas Gerais is limited according to the report (~400k bags).
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Robusta regions remain strong with high production potential next year.
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COFFEE (H1 interval)
Coffee loses almost 3% today, testing the important support from EMA50 (orange line).
Source: xStation5
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