Daily Summary: A Lull in the Pre-Holiday Calm

Global financial markets are catching their breath on the final day of the week, as the majority of the world's major exchanges remain closed for Good Friday.

Trading is halted across most European bourses, Wall Street, and several key markets in the Asia-Pacific region.

U.S. equity futures operated on a truncated schedule today, posting modest declines of approximately 0.3% for both the Nasdaq 100 (US100) and the S&P 500 (US500).

Declines were observed in Chinese and South Korean index futures, while the Nikkei 225 (JP225) managed to log fractional gains.

No major commodity markets are operating in the United States or Europe today. However, due to the continued escalation in Iran, Brent crude prices settled near the $110 per barrel mark yesterday.

While the United States has pledged further heavy airstrikes and Iran has intensified attacks on various targets in the Persian Gulf—including tankers—reports suggest diplomatic channels remain open between Tehran and Muscat. These talks reportedly aim to establish a system for regulating maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz via high transit fees, a move that would be considered a breach of international law.

Latest reports indicate that a French container ship successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz. This increases the likelihood that, should the U.S. withdraw, commercial transit through the passage could be restored, albeit likely subject to significant Iranian levies.

The United States has officially confirmed that an F-15 fighter jet was shot down over Iranian territory. The fate of the crew remains unknown.

Despite the market closure, crucial U.S. labor market data was released today. The figures were exceptionally strong, showing a payroll increase of 186,000 against an expected 78,000. This represents a sharp rebound following the contraction of 133,000 seen in March (revised number is the lowest since 2020)

The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, while wage growth moderated to 3.5%. Given the lack of negative signals from the labor market and the prospect of a 1 percentage point spike in inflation, the odds of interest rate cuts in the coming months have fallen to near zero.

The Services PMI unexpectedly slipped into contractionary territory, falling to 49.8 against a consensus estimate of 51.1 points.

The EURUSD pair is seeing a slight decline today, pressured by the robust U.S. employment data.

The broader cryptocurrency market is largely gaining today, though Bitcoin has seen a slight retreat, slipping below the $67,000 mark.