Daily Summary: Dollar Weakens Amid Inflation and Trump Comments

U.S. indices gained significantly today, driven by a near 100% market certainty of a Fed interest rate cut at the September meeting. US100 futures saw notable gains of 1.14%. US500 increases slightly lower than 1% and US2000 is gaining more than 2%

U.S. CPI inflation for July held steady at 2.7% year-on-year, against expectations for a slight increase. Conversely, core inflation rose more sharply to 3.1% year-on-year. Despite this, the data did not significantly alter the Federal Reserve's outlook.

Donald Trump described the inflation data as "very good" and once again criticized Jerome Powell for the lack of rate cuts. Furthermore, new Fed Governor Miran adopted a distinctly dovish tone, stating that there were no inflation problems, which should justify lower interest rates.

The EUR/USD pair rebounded sharply after yesterday's declines, climbing from the 1.1600 level to nearly 1.1700.

U.S. natural gas prices fell significantly following the latest EIA STEO report, which forecast higher production for 2025 and 2026.

Crude oil remained under pressure despite uncertainty surrounding a meeting between Trump and Putin this Friday in Alaska. WTI crude oil prices tested the $63 per barrel level. The latest OPEC report showed an increase in production in July compared to the previous month, in line with the restoration of output from voluntary cuts.

Ukrainian President Zelensky indicated that Russia is preparing for an offensive after August 15, and stated that Ukraine has no intention of withdrawing troops from Donbas.

The WASDE report showed a significant increase in corn production and a decrease in soybean production, leading to a drop in corn prices below 400 cents per bushel and a rise in soybean prices above 1000 cents per bushel.

Yesterday, Donald Trump called for a four-fold increase in U.S. soybean imports by China. This is considered physically unlikely given China's substantial purchases from Brazil.

Wheat prices also fell, testing the 500 cents per bushel level. This decline was not linked to U.S. data but to global figures showing a continued increase in production compared to the previous year.

Gold recovered some of its losses after yesterday's sharp retreat, attributed to uncertainty ahead of Friday's meeting.

The ZEW Institute's index was published today. German economic sentiment expectations fell sharply in August to 34.7 points, down from 52.7 points in July. This steep decline was influenced by deteriorating sentiment in the German industrial sector, which was heavily impacted by the recently signed trade agreement between the European Union and the United States.

Shares of German IT giant SAP.DE dropped by nearly 5%, reaching their lowest level since April. Some investors fear that the German company may be losing the technological race against its American counterparts.

Hours after President Donald Trump approved the sale of Nvidia and AMD chips to China in exchange for a 15% share of revenue, Beijing retaliated. The Chinese government banned state-owned companies, agencies, and firms from purchasing and using these chips, a firm response to the attempt to de-escalate the trade war.

Cryptocurrencies gain on weaker dollar. Bitcoin approaches $120000 and Ethereum is above $4400