Daily Summary - End of Oil Gains and a Brilliant Quarter for Wall Street (30.06.2026)

📊 Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Calendar

• United Kingdom: Real gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter grew by 0.6% q/q and was 0.9% higher than a year earlier, which was exactly in line with the quarterly forecast (0.6%) and slightly lower than the annual forecast. However, monthly ONS data suggests some loss of momentum, as real GDP decreased by 0.1% in April 2026, indicating moderate activity at the beginning of the second quarter.
• Poland: Preliminary CPI inflation reading for June amounted to 2.5% y/y (forecast: 2.7% y/y, previous: 3.1% y/y) and a decrease of -0.5% m/m (forecast: -0.2% m/m, previous: -0.3% m/m). Inflation exactly at target means the MPC will have no pretext for changing interest rates in the coming months.
• United States: The number of job openings according to JOLTS data in May was 7.594 million, remaining at an almost unchanged level compared to the downward revised April reading (7.585 million), but exceeding the consensus level of 7.3 million. This data suggests stable demand for workers while payroll growth has recently accelerated.
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased by 0.6 points in June to 91.2 points (forecast: 94.4 points) after a downward revision from the previous month, with falling gasoline prices helping to offset employment concerns. The June Chicago PMI index rose above expectations to 56.7 points against a forecast of 55.9 points (previous: 62.7 points).
• Germany: Preliminary CPI inflation for June slowed to 2.3% y/y (forecast: 2.6%) and fell by -0.3% m/m (forecast: 0.0%), while the harmonized HICP index was 2.4% y/y (forecast: 2.5%) and -0.2% m/m (forecast: 0.0%), respectively.
• China: Official economic activity indicators for June turned out to be better than forecasts. CFLP Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 points (forecast: 50.1 points), and CFLP Services PMI amounted to 50.2 points (forecast: 49.9 points).

📈 Stock Exchanges and Stock Markets

• United States (Wall Street): Major US indices recorded a strong Tuesday session, ending the best quarter in six years.. In the evening hours in Europe, the S&P 500 rose by 0.8%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 gained 1.8%, driven by a rebound in chipmakers and signs of economic resilience that fuel optimism about corporate earnings.
• The industrial Dow Jones gained a more modest 0.3%. The three-month stock market increase boosted the S&P 500 market value by a massive 8 trillion dollars. The end of the first half of the year was dubbed "monstrous" despite the difficult geopolitical backdrop and volatility. The "buying the dip" strategy became the default choice for retail investors, who bought assets worth almost 3.5 times the daily average during S&P 500 down sessions.
• Simultaneously, a broader capital rotation from big tech to small-caps and undervalued segments meant that the S&P 500 was down 1.8% in June the day before the end of the month, placing it on track for the second-worst June since 2015.
• Europe and World Markets: European stock exchanges recorded a mixed close to Tuesday's session. The broad Stoxx Europe index rose by 0.9%, and the German DAX soared by 1.4%. The British FTSE 100 gained a symbolic 0.1%, while the French CAC slid by 0.4%, and the Swiss Swiss Market Index (SMI) lost 0.1%. The global MSCI World index rose by 0.6% at the same time.

💱 Currencies

• Major Currency Pairs: The EURUSD exchange rate held above 1.14, despite the morning strengthening of the US dollar**. GBPUSD held above 1.3250.**
• Japanese Yen Sell-off: The Japanese currency slid another 0.4% on Tuesday to 162.67 per dollar. The yen is at its weakest level in 40 years, breaking above its peaks against the dollar from July 2024.

🛢️ Commodities and Energy

• Crude Oil: The oil market recorded the largest quarterly price drop since the pandemic, and Brent crude futures fell by approximately 30% in the second quarter (excluding rollovers), which almost entirely negated the geopolitical premium caused by the outbreak of war between the US and Iran in February.
• At the end of June, the price of Brent September contracts hovered around $73 per barrel, while US WTI for August fell by 1% to levels below $70
• The supply breakthrough was brought about by the signing of a temporary memorandum and the start of peace negotiations in Doha (Qatar) with the participation of Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, which allowed the return of tanker traffic in the critical Strait of Hormuz to nearly 80% of the pre-war level according to Goldman Sachs (and the norm of 30–40 units per day according to Morgan Stanley). Although official satellite data shows only 1/3 of the norm, this is due to the fact that many vessels sail with transponders turned off after weekend attacks on two container ships.
• Morgan Stanley lowered its Dated Brent price forecasts for the third and fourth quarters of 2026 by $15 and $5 respectively, to an average level of $75 per barrel, warning of structural oversupply caused by the unblocking of the Middle East, weak demand in China, and strong US exports.
• Precious Metals (Gold): Spot gold quotations recorded a modest rebound of 0.3% to $4030 per ounce, stabilizing slightly above the psychological threshold of $4000 at the end of June. Despite this, since the outbreak of the conflict in February, the precious metal has lost about 25% of its value, breaking key supports, and its total decline from the winter peaks (approx. $5,600) reaches 30%.
• The situation regarding the central bank's autonomy was stabilized by the US Supreme Court ruling, which allowed Governor Lisa Cook to remain on the Board of Governors during the legal dispute with President Donald Trump, who sought her removal.

₿ Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin (BTC): The price of the most popular digital currency noted a clear weakening, falling by 3% to a level slightly above $58,000
• Ether (ETH): The second-largest cryptocurrency followed the market trend, also falling by 3% to a valuation of $1,568.