Daily summary: Equities extend rally on upside NFP surprise, dollar recovers (03.07.2025)

Wall Street closed earlier due to tomorrow’s 4th of July celebrations (no session tomorrow).

U.S. indexes hit new highs today, driven by a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report (NFP). The Nasdaq 100 leads the gains (+1%), the S&P 500 breaks above the 6250 level (+0.9%), and the Dow Jones is up more than 0.8%.

The final vote on Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” continues to be delayed due to an ongoing speech — now over 8 hours long — by Congressman Hakeem Jeffries, leader of the Democratic Party, who is using the customary "magic minute" rule. This allows party leaders to speak without time limits after a bill’s debate has concluded.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000 (expectations: 110,000), with the previous reading revised up to 144,000 (from 139,000). Unemployment unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% (forecast: 4.3%, previous: 4.2%).

The U.S. ISM Services Index rose to 50.8, beating expectations (50.5) and the prior reading of 49.9.

On the back of strong labor market data, expectations for a Fed rate cut have declined. As a result, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose by 6 bps today, climbing back above 4.34%. This move erased the gains in bond prices seen over the last two weeks.

Lucid Group rose nearly 6% after reporting a record number of electric vehicles sold in Q2 2025. The company delivered 3,309 vehicles in the second quarter, compared to 2,394 in the same period last year.

Tesla held steady at yesterday’s closing price despite continued weak sales. In Q2 2025, car deliveries fell to 384,000 — a decline of more than 13% year-over-year. This marks the second consecutive quarter with vehicle sales below 400,000.

European markets are extending yesterday’s gains. Among major indexes, Germany’s DAX and the UK’s FTSE 100 are performing best, each up about 0.6%. Italy’s IT40 is up 0.4%, and France’s CAC 40 has gained 0.2%. The only decline is seen in Switzerland’s SMI, which is down just over 0.1%.

European services PMI data came in slightly better than expected, although the surprise was not large. Among major Eurozone economies, only Italy and Spain reported services PMIs above 50 points.

Swiss CPI inflation rebounded slightly, defying expectations for continued deflationary pressure. The index rose 0.1% y/y (forecast: -0.1% y/y; previous: -0.1% y/y).

In the forex market, the U.S. dollar is rebounding strongly against most G10 currencies following the better-than-expected NFP report (USD Index: +0.35%). The biggest corrections are in traditional safe-haven currencies: the Swiss franc (USDCHF: +0.4%), the yen (USDJPY: +1%), and the euro (EURUSD: -0.35% to 1.1756). The Canadian dollar (USDCAD: -0.25%) and British pound (GBPUSD: +0.1%) are more resilient.

Brent and WTI crude oil are down 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively, after reports that OPEC is discussing an increase in August production to 411,000 barrels per day. Natural gas futures are also down 1.1% following data showing higher-than-expected inventories in the U.S.

Precious metals are mostly lower: platinum futures have erased part of yesterday’s gains, dropping 2.9% near the upper boundary of this week’s consolidation range. Gold is down about 0.7%, palladium 0.9%. Only silver is continuing its rally, gaining 0.8%.

In the cryptocurrency market, declines continue. While Bitcoin is up 0.25% to $109,480, other major tokens are in the red: Ethereum (-0.7% to $2,574), Solana (-1.75%), Graph (-1.3%), Sushi (-0.8%), and Trump (-0.7%).