Daily Summary: Gold Surges on Trade War Concerns as Oil Falls on OPEC+ Output Hike

Markets retreat after historic bull run as the US30 gained 0.26%, US100 slid 0.29%, and US500 fell 0.2%, halting the S&P's longest advance in about 20 years. Even positive service sector growth data couldn't buoy investor sentiment.

Trump tariffs hit entertainment industry with a newly announced 100% tariff on all movies produced outside the US, sending media stocks lower. Netflix tumbled 1.2% while Disney, Warner Bros Discovery, and Comcast fell between 0.7% and 1.7%. 

Gold prices rally on trade war concerns, jumping 2.3% to $3,316.04 an ounce as investors seek safe-haven assets amid ongoing US-China trade tensions. Despite Trump suggesting potential trade deals with some countries this week, no imminent accord with China is expected. Gold has surged 26% this year, hitting a record around $3,500 in April.

The service ISM index for April came out much higher than expected at 51.6 points, with the expectation of 50.2 and the previous 50.8. The price subindex was much higher for April, rising to 65.1 points, as is the new orders subindex, which amounted to 52.3 points. The employment subindex remains below 50 points, but is higher than expected and higher than previously.

Oil prices continue downward spiral with WTI crude falling 2.6% to under $57 per barrel, hovering near four-year lows after OPEC+ agreed on Saturday to increase output by more than 400,000 barrels per day starting in June. Analysts warn global markets could be oversupplied by 500,000 barrels daily, potentially pushing prices to the low $50s.

Federal Reserve decision looms as policymakers meet Wednesday amid expectations they'll hold rates steady despite Trump's public pressure for cuts. Recent strong jobs data has given the Fed justification to maintain current policy, though the impact of tariffs on inflation remains a concern.

The dollar was losing today on the broad market, which was related to trade concerns, but at the end of the day the increase in EURUSD was significantly limited. The pair is trading around 1.13

Major M&A activity accelerates with 3G Capital acquiring Skechers for $9.42 billion (a 28% premium), Sunoco agreeing to purchase Parkland Corp for $9.1 billion, and reports that Shell is evaluating a potential acquisition of BP. Meanwhile, Apple plans its first corporate bond sale in two years.

Warren Buffett announces succession plan with Berkshire Hathaway officially naming Vice Chairman Greg Abel to replace Buffett as CEO effective January 1, 2026, following Sunday's unanimous board vote. Buffett, 94, has held the position since 1970.

Treasury Secretary defends Trump economic agenda as Scott Bessent told the Milken Institute that tariffs, tax cuts and deregulation are "interlocking parts of an engine designed to drive long-term investment in the American economy," while claiming US markets were "antifragile."

Taiwan's dollar surges on trade hopes with the currency seeing its largest gain since 1988 on speculation authorities might allow appreciation to help secure a trade deal with the US, even as global currency markets saw the US dollar index fall 0.3%.

Cryptocurrency markets pull back as Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $94,100 while Ether dropped 1.4% to around $1,800, continuing recent volatility in digital assets despite their strong performance year-to-date.