Daily summary: Iran Does Not Close the Strait of Hormuz, but Attacks U.S. Bases (23.06.2025)

There was no full escalation of the situation in the Middle East after the weekend U.S. bombing attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure.

Iran fired 6–10 missiles at American bases in Qatar and probably Iraq, according to Axios and Tasnim agencies. Qatar intercepted all the missiles, and U.S. indices returned to gains on hopes that the situation would not lead to a broader escalation in the region (US100: +0.5%, US30: +0.3%, US500: +0.4%).

Oil began the day with a 5% upward gap following Sunday’s vote in the Iranian parliament, which announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. So far, however, no concrete actions have taken place, and the flow of ships — especially tankers — continues.

Oil limited its gains and began to lose during the day due to the lack of escalation. Moreover, oil fell to the lowest level since June 18, due to Iran opting for limited escalation (no attacks on ships and a limited missile attack on U.S. bases).

Iran reports that it used the same number of missiles as the U.S. did in its weekend bombing. Iran also notes it does not want conflict with Qatar and that the country’s authorities were informed in advance of the attack to minimize casualties. It is worth noting that all missiles were reportedly intercepted by air defense.

Gold is gaining 0.3% today, although the jump at the beginning of the session did not exceed 1%. The market currently does not perceive high risk associated with the current situation in the Middle East.

In the forex market, we observed significant volatility today driven by developments in the Middle East and dovish comments from Michelle Bowman, who supports a rate cut in July. Goolsbee also indicates that with greater clarity on tariffs, the Fed should cut rates.

The dollar index erased all gains from earlier in the session, currently down 0.1%. Leading the way are safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss franc (USDCHF: -0.6%) and the euro (EURUSD: +0.3% to around 1.155). The pound is also gaining (GBPUSD: +0.4%) as well as the Swedish krona (+0.5%). Antipodean currencies are still trading in the red (AUDUSD, NZDUSD: -0.1%), as are the yen (USDJPY: +0.2%) and the Canadian dollar (USDCAD: +0.15%).

U.S. PMI indices beat expectations, although the composite index declined compared to May’s data. The manufacturing PMI held at 52 points, with expectations for a decline to 51 points. The services PMI fell to 53.1, with expectations for a drop to 52.9 and a previous level of 53.7.

The PMI data indicated both still-strong domestic demand in the U.S. and increasing price pressure among producers due to imposed tariffs.

Germany’s manufacturing PMI rose to 49 points, in line with expectations, with a previous reading of 48.3 points. France’s manufacturing PMI fell to 47.8, with expectations it would remain at 49 points.

Germany’s services PMI unexpectedly rose to 49.4 from 47.1, with expectations for a rise only to 47.9. France’s services PMI came in lower at 48.7, with expectations for a rise to 49.1, and a previous level of 48.9.

The U.S. housing market saw an unexpected rebound in May: home sales rose 0.8% m/m, compared to a forecasted decline of 1.3%.

In the cryptocurrency market, we observe broad optimism: Bitcoin is gaining over 2% to $101,700, Ethereum is up 3.6% to $2,265, and green as well are futures on Sushi (+8.6%), Dogecoin (+5.4%), and Chainlink (+4.9%).