- The US session unfolded in a negative mood, though the scale of declines was limited. Most indices cut their losses to a maximum of 0.5%. Toward the end of the session, the Dow swapped places with the Russell, becoming the worst performer. Futures on the industrial index are down about 0.7%.
- A series of important macroeconomic data points is coming in from the US. Donald Trump’s trade policy is delivering increasingly weaker results: imports are rising and the trade deficit is widening, while exports are falling.
- Initial jobless claims fell more than expected, to 206k. Continuing jobless claims rose above expectations, to 1.869 million.
- The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose well above expectations, to 16.3.
- Blue Owl Capital is suspending payouts for one of its private funds, fueling investor concerns about the health and liquidity of the private credit market. The company itself is down more than 8% following the decision.
- Europe also closed in the red. All major Old Continent indices posted losses. The biggest decliner was Italy’s FTSE MIB, down more than 1%. Switzerland’s SMI held up best, trimming losses to 0.2%.
- Airbus reported results above expectations, but the number of aircraft delivered declined. The stock lost about 6%. In Europe, Renault and Rio Tinto also fell after their results.
- In FX markets, the Swiss franc is slightly weaker, down about 0.2–0.3% against major currency pairs. The British pound is also down, with losses limited to 0.2%.
- In agricultural commodities, cocoa stands out, falling more than 7% today. Persistent oversupply has pushed prices to levels not seen since 2023.
- The market is clearly concerned about a US–Iran confrontation and potential disruptions to shipping and production around the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices are also supported by inventory data, which unexpectedly and sharply fell by 9 million barrels. Oil prices are up 2% today, with WTI reaching $66 per barrel.
- In precious metals, the only notable move is in palladium, down about 2%.
- The crypto market is coming off another day dominated by declines. Ethereum is limiting losses to around 0.4%, with prices near $1,940. Bitcoin is slightly higher, holding around $66,800.
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