Daily summary: Oil still pressures Wall Street despite favorable CPI data 🗽

• S&P 500 (US500) futures are down nearly 0.5%, while Brent crude (OIL) futures are rising more than 1% to around $92 per barrel, despite comments from Donald Trump signaling a gradual de-escalation of military actions and a possible near-term end to the conflict with Iran. The US president said the US has only a few targets left to eliminate. The February US CPI inflation reading came in line with expectations at 2.4% YoY, but the market largely ignored the data, viewing the report as somewhat “outdated” in light of the escalating situation in the Middle East.
• After a declining session in Europe, where the DAX lost nearly 1.4% and the UK’s FTSE fell close to 0.6%, S&P 500 (US500) futures are down nearly 0.5%, while Brent crude (OIL) futures are rising more than 1% to around $92 per barrel, despite comments from Donald Trump signaling a gradual de-escalation of military actions and a possible near-term end to the conflict with Iran.
• The US president said the US has only a few targets left to eliminate and that he personally does not believe Iran will begin mining the Strait of Hormuz. He also stated that tankers could essentially already pass through Hormuz. Iran, however, continues to maintain that attacks on ships and regional infrastructure will continue.

The February US CPI inflation reading came in line with expectations (2.4% YoY), but the market did not assign much weight to the data, viewing the report as somewhat “outdated” in light of the conflict in the Middle East. Oracle (ORCL.US) shares are rising more than 8% today after earnings that beat forecasts and slightly eased concerns about rising CAPEX.

February US CPI data

• CPI MoM: 0.3% (Forecast: 0.3%; Previous: 0.2%)

• CPI YoY: 2.4% (Forecast: 2.4%; Previous: 2.4%)

• Core CPI MoM: 0.2% (Forecast: 0.2%; Previous: 0.3%)

• Core CPI YoY: 2.5% (Forecast: 2.5%; Previous: 2.5%)

In preliminary analysis of the US data, a slowdown in price growth for used cars and insurance was notable, which is helping put downward pressure on core inflation.

US EIA data

EIA data showed a larger-than-expected decline in US fuel inventories, while crude oil inventories increased more than forecast.

• Crude oil inventories: 3.824 million barrels (forecast: 2.5M, previous: 3.475M)

• Gasoline inventories: -3.654 million barrels (forecast: -2M, previous: -1.704M)

• Distillate inventories: -1.349 million barrels (forecast: -0.947M, previous: 0.429M)

• Cushing crude inventories: 0.117 million barrels (previous: 1.564M)

Cryptocurrencies are rising. Bitcoin is climbing to nearly $70,500, while Ethereum moves above $2,100, despite the strengthening US dollar, which is supported in the short term by higher yields and inflation risks linked to oil prices. The market expects only one Fed rate cut in autumn 2026 and is confident that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates at this month’s meeting. Gold is slightly lower today, while silver is falling more than 3% to $85 per ounce amid concerns about global industrial activity and monetary policy.

Microsoft (MSFT.US) is in advanced talks to lease hundreds of megawatts of data center capacity at a key AI campus in Abilene, Texas, after Oracle (ORCL.US) previously walked away from the opportunity. According to earlier reports, Meta Platforms (META.US) is also interested in leasing the site. Building and operating the planned facilities could cost tens of billions of dollars, including Nvidia (NVDA.US) chips needed to power AI servers. The news, however, has not triggered noticeable volatility in the shares of any of the companies mentioned.

Charts: OIL and Microsoft (hourly timeframe)

Source: xStation5

Source: xStation5