Daily summary: S&P 500 Hits New All-Time High, Euro Extends Rally (27.06.2025)

Wall Street heads into the weekend with a strong dose of optimism following Donald Trump's comments expressing his desire to finalize trade agreements by the July deadline. Among the major indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average leads with a 1.15% gain, the S&P 500 hit a new intraday all-time-high just below 6,190 (+0.65%), and both the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are also up by 0.55%.

Core PCE inflation rose by 0.2% in May, pushing the annual rate to 2.7% and slightly exceeding expectations, underscoring the continued difficulty of bringing underlying inflation back to the Fed's 2% target.

Canada's real GDP contracted by 0.1% in April (compared to +0.2% in March). The decline was almost entirely due to the industrial sector, with manufacturing output falling 0.6%.

European indices extended their gains to end the week. The Frankfurt (DAX: +1.6%), Paris (CAC40: +1.8%), and Madrid (IBEX35: +1.1%) exchanges showed the strongest optimism.

Higher inflation prints from France and Germany are reducing the odds of rate cuts in the eurozone. June CPI came in at 0.9% y/y for France (vs. expected 0.7%) and 2.4% y/y for Spain (vs. 2.2% forecast).

Bloomberg reports that the EU and US are confident they will reach an agreement on tariffs before the July 9 deadline, when Washington is set to impose 50% duties on nearly all EU products and the bloc plans to launch its own set of countermeasures. This suggests both sides aim to resolve the contentious tariff issue.

The forex market is ending a turbulent week with a calm session. G10 currency volatility generally remains below 0.3%. The dollar index rebounds by 0.1%, though this hasn't stopped the EURUSD from rising another 0.1% to 1.171. The Canadian dollar is the biggest loser (USDCAD: +0.3%) after weaker-than-expected GDP data. The British pound, Japanese yen, and Australian dollar are also down 0.2% against the USD.

According to Bloomberg, eight OPEC+ member countries have agreed to increase supply by 411,000 barrels per day, with discussions underway for potentially even larger hikes. Oil prices initially pulled back on the news but are now posting modest daily gains of 0.17%, compared to earlier intraday highs of up to 1.7%.

Despite the initial drop, Brent and WTI crude have rebounded, up 0.15% and 0.3% respectively. Natural gas futures continue their rally with a further 5% gain.

Rising risk appetite, hopes for trade deals, and ongoing de-escalation in the Middle East are putting pressure on precious metals. Gold is down 1.6% to $3,274 per ounce, and silver is down 1.4% to $36.15.

Major cryptocurrencies are seeing moderate declines. Bitcoin is down 0.7% to $107,080, Ethereum falls 1.15% to $2,418, while Ripple (-1.1%) and Polygon (-0.5%) futures are also trading lower.