Daily Summary: Semiconductors Rise in the Shadow of Geopolitical Turmoil

USA

• The US stock market ends Tuesday’s session with strong gains. The top performer among index futures is US100, up nearly 2%, followed by Russell 2000 futures, up more than 1%.
• The Middle East remains one of the main price drivers. Sentiment around the conflict’s outlook is mixed. An intensifying exchange of fire and attacks on infrastructure alternate with proposals for another ceasefire.
• The US is introducing additional tariffs on Canada. Despite the selective nature and relatively mild economic impact of the new tariffs, many analysts, journalists, and investors believe this may be only the beginning of another wave of tariffs introduced by Donald Trump.
• According to, among others, Axios, the US government is reportedly in the preliminary stage of debates over a ban covering open AI models, a direct response to the launch of China’s K3.

Company news, US:

• General Motors (GM.US): The American automotive conglomerate posted surprisingly strong results for Q2 2026. Revenue came in at USD 48 billion versus expectations of USD 47 billion, and EPS was as high as USD 3.57 versus the expected ~USD 3.2. A particularly positive highlight is the increase in full fiscal year guidance by a few percent across key operating metrics. The stock is up around 3%.
• Nebius (NBIS.US): One of the leaders in the “neo-cloud” sector jumps more than 17% after Nvidia disclosed a 9.3% stake in the company.
• Eli Lilly (LLY.US): The company has been sued by Novo Nordisk. According to the published information, the Danish pharmaceutical group accuses Eli Lilly of a range of unfair and anti-consumer practices, mainly related to marketing. So far, Eli Lilly has not commented. The stock is up about 1%.
• Northrop Grumman (NOC.US): The US defense company reported results. Despite record revenue and orders, a decline in operating margin from 13.8% to 10% led to a drop of nearly 8%, which was reduced to around 2% as the session progressed.
• 3M (MMM.US): The company reported Q2 2026 results that significantly exceeded market expectations. A clear rise in EPS to USD 2.24 and revenue to USD 6.5 billion was accompanied by an increase in full-year guidance, resulting in a roughly 7% jump at the open.
• SaaS: Morgan Stanley published a series of reports and recommendations for SaaS companies. Despite positive highlights and an “attractive” view of the overall sector, the market focused almost exclusively on the negatives, and sector stocks are down between 1% and 4%.

Europe

• Positive sentiment also carried over to Europe. The strongest gains are seen in Poland’s W20 and Germany’s DE40.
• Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for European natural gas prices by an average of 10% to 15% in Q3 and Q4 2026.
• The largest moves in the Euro Stoxx 50 today are in technology and industrial stocks on the upside, and financials and telecommunications on the downside.

Company news, Europe:

• ASML leads the gainers, supported by a rebound in the semiconductor sector after recent volatility.
• Siemens Energy rises over 2%, and TotalEnergies adds around 2%, benefiting from a rebound in oil and gas prices.
• Novartis gains after its Q2 operating result (USD 5.94 billion) beat market expectations despite a 50% drop in Entresto sales due to generic competition.
• Julius Baer falls 4% despite better net inflows
• Schindler drops 5% after weaker quarterly revenues.
• Norway’s Vaar Energi is acquiring BlueNord for around USD 1.33 billion, creating Europe’s largest independent oil and gas producer. Shares of both companies rise by about 5% and 6%, respectively.
• Wienerberger falls 4% after warning of weaker full-year 2026 earnings.

Forex

• In currencies, attention is on the US dollar and the euro, which in a rare move are rising symmetrically against the rest of the currency basket. These gains are around 0.3%. This is driven mainly by changes in expectations for interest rates and inflation in the major economies.

Commodities

• Persistent, and in some places increasing, tension in the Middle East, including the Houthis’ declared blockade of the Red Sea, is supporting hydrocarbon prices. Brent crude rises more than 2% and moves back above USD 91.
• Among precious metals, silver stands out with strong gains, up more than 4%. This move may be driven not only by rising Middle East concerns and oil prices, but could also be a sign of (at least partial) capitulation below USD 60, creating an opportunity for a sharp upward correction after a long series of declines.

Crypto

• Positive sentiment in the broader equity market is clearly spilling over into cryptocurrencies.
  • Bitcoin rises more than 1% and returns above USD 66,000.
  • Ethereum is performing worse, though still up, trading above USD 1,910.
  • Solana posts marginal declines and remains around USD 77.7.