Daily summary: Stronger than expected US macro doesn't lift US dollar 🗽Gold and EURUSD gain

European indices declined today, weighed down in part by the political crisis in France. Concerns over the formation of a new government and ongoing budget negotiations fueled jitters across the region. The French CAC40 fell 1.7%, Germany’s DAX lost 0.5%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.6%.

U.S. indices traded with limited volatility as investors awaited Nvidia’s earnings report, scheduled after the Wednesday session on Wall Street. Nvidia shares gained more than 0.7% ahead of the release. Palantir rose nearly 2%, attempting to recover from recent selling pressure.

Among U.S. benchmarks, the Russell 2000 (US2000) outperformed with gains among small-cap stocks. In contrast, futures on the Nasdaq (US100) and S&P 500 (US500) edged lower by 0.01%–0.05%.

U.S. economic data came in stronger than expected but failed to lift the dollar. The USD Index fell 0.15%, while EUR/USD climbed to 1.1636. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields dropped nearly 2 basis points, below 4.26%.

Key data releases:

• Durable goods orders: –2.8% m/m (forecast –3.8%, prior –9.4%).

• Core durable goods: +1.1% m/m (forecast +0.2%, prior +0.3%).

• Capital goods orders ex-defense: +1.1% m/m (forecast +0.3%, prior –0.6%).

• Conference Board Consumer Confidence: 97.4 (prior 97.2, revised 98.7, forecast 96.4).

• House price index m/m: –0.2% (forecast –0.1%, prior –0.2%).

• FHFA 20-City home price index y/y: 2.14% (forecast 2.09%, prior 2.8%).

• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: –7 (forecast –11, prior –20).

• Redbook retail sales (July): +6.5% y/y (vs. +5.9% in June).

U.S. Treasury Secretary Howard Lutnick signaled the government may consider taking stakes in several defense companies, including Lockheed Martin, whose shares rose nearly 2%. The defense sector broadly traded higher today.

• Heico surged over 8% after reporting Q3 results well above expectations. EPS rose 30% y/y, and all key segments of the aerospace and defense company posted solid growth.

Coffee futures declined after StoneX updated its supply outlook, forecasting stronger harvests in the next season and robust Robusta production.

Oil dropped more than 2% after comments from President Trump, who threatened sanctions on Russia if no Ukraine deal is reached. Trump also said oil prices would fall below $60. The White House is also pressuring India on the issue.

Cocoa fell over 4% as improved weather forecasts in East Africa eased supply concerns. Weak demand prospects and the impact of new U.S. tariffs added further pressure.

Bitcoin held near $110,000, while attention in the crypto market shifted to Ethereum, which gained more than 4% to $4,530. Gold advanced nearly 0.45% to $3,380/oz, supported by dollar weakness.