- Donald Trump decided yesterday to unilaterally extend the ceasefire to allow Iran more time to deliberate.
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Iran expresses a desire to return to peace negotiations but simultaneously demands the lifting of the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz by the United States.
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Iran claims it is still capable of exporting oil. Meanwhile, Iran has seized two ships attempting to breach the Iranian blockade, which may slightly increase tensions.
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Trump mentioned a chance for talks to resume on Friday. Pakistan is optimistic, citing a high probability of returning to the negotiating table.
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Trump has given Iran until Sunday to begin talks.
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The Pentagon indicates that clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz could take up to 6 months and can only begin once peace is achieved. This means transit through the Strait will be severely limited nearly until the end of this year.
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US500 continues its rally and has a chance for a new all-time high close today. S&P 500 futures are up 0.5%, while the Nasdaq (US100) is rising over 1%.
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Although there is no visible tension on Wall Street, the oil market is reacting with significant gains to the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude is up 2.5% (exceeding $96/bbl), while WTI is rising nearly 3%, testing the $93/bbl area.
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Gold is seeing modest gains (+0.4%), while larger increases are observed in platinum (+2.1%) and silver (+1.7%), despite the recovery in gold and a strong US dollar.
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EURUSD continues its sharp decline from yesterday, nearing the 1.1700 level. The chances of an ECB interest rate hike in April are minimal.
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Philip Lane, ECB Chief Economist, warns of Eurozone risk factors such as an economic slowdown and an inflation spike driven by energy prices.
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Germany has cut its economic growth forecast for this year from 1.0% to 0.5% due to the energy crisis.
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US crude oil inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels, defying expectations of a draw. However, refined product inventories (gasoline and distillates) saw very sharp declines.
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UK inflation for March came in as expected at 3.3% y/y, but rose more strongly on a monthly basis at 0.7% m/m. GBPUSD is stabilizing above 1.35.
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Bitcoin is approaching $80,000 today, driven by increased ETF activity and an appetite for riskier assets, following the gains on Wall Street.
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Tesla and Intel will report results after the Wall Street session. Although Tesla reported lower Q1 vehicle sales than expected, investors will primarily focus on future plans related to AI and robotics.
The US500 is near all-time highs, undisturbed by risks from the Middle East. Tesla and Intel earnings reports will be released later today, which will be crucial for the future performance of key US indices. Source: xStation5
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➡️EURUSD Amid European Stagflation and Geopolitical Shock
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