Daily Summary: Wall Street and US dollar gain despite weak US jobs report

• U.S. index futures are trading higher despite an alarmingly large downward revision to labor market data. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), between 2024 and March 2025, the U.S. economy shed 911,000 jobs, compared to forecasts of around 700,000 and the previous estimate of nearly 820,000.
• The US30 contract is up nearly 0.4%, the US100 gains 0.2%, and the S&P 500 is also higher, supported by investor optimism over potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. Investors await Oracle (ORCL.US) earnings report, scheduled after the session on Wall Street
• The U.S. Department of Labor reported a historic negative revision of –911,000 jobs in March, the largest correction in the indicator’s history. This drastic revision deepens concerns over labor market conditions and significantly raises the likelihood of decisive Fed action in the form of interest rate cuts. Recession fears are beginning to surface more prominently.
• Secondary U.S. economic data painted a more optimistic picture. Comparable sales in department stores (U.S. Redbook) rose 6.6% YoY in July, while small business sentiment, measured by the NFIB Index, improved to 100.8 vs. 100.5 expected. These figures partially contradict the recession narrative implied by labor market data.
• Fitch Ratings now forecasts two Fed rate cuts this year (September and December) and three more in 2026. The agency slightly raised its global GDP growth forecast but warned that slowdown risks are building in the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, Citi analysts argued that a September Fed cut is not guaranteed, pointing to data indicating resilient U.S. consumption.
• U.S. equities are led higher today by the technology sector, with Alphabet and Meta Platforms both up more than 1.5%. On the other hand, Apple shares are down over 0.5%, as investors deemed the announcements from the Apple Event, including the iPhone 17 launch, insufficiently optimistic.
• European stocks also advanced, supported by improved sentiment following the weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report, which boosted expectations of more aggressive Fed cuts. Indices such as EURONEXT 100, CLIMATE EUROPE, and NEXT BIOTECH gained between 0.3–0.8%.

The commodities market saw mixed moves:

• Gold continues its rally, approaching another record near $3,660, fueled by concerns over budget deficits and inflation.

• Cocoa rose 1.5%, though the rebound remains weak after prices recently hit 10-month lows.

• Oil and industrial metals posted moderate declines, partly following the latest STEO report.

In cryptocurrencies, buying pressure remains evident, with most major tokens advancing. Bitcoin rebounded above $60,000, holding steady gains, while Ethereum benefited from expectations of further Fed policy easing, which supports risk assets.