Stephen Miran (Trump's Fed Nominee)
- Pleased with current BLS inflation data, calling it “well behaved.”
- Argues there’s no evidence of tariff-driven inflation; core CPI items like car prices and airfares are unaffected.
- Sees rent inflation partly as the result of illegal immigration; expects disinflation in services if policy changes.
- Emphasizes importance of Fed independence but supports further monetary easing.
- Known for favoring a weaker dollar and looser monetary policy.
Donald Trump
- Intensifies public criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, demanding aggressive interest rate cuts.
- Raises the prospect of lawsuits surrounding Fed building management.
- Argues Powell was “too late” in easing policy; advocates for faster, deeper rate cuts.
Barkin (Richmond Fed President)
- Warns that inflation risks remain unresolved, with job market and consumer spending still uncertain.
- Highlights consumer fatigue from higher prices; warns that a spending pullback could threaten the economy.
- Suggests the Fed should remain cautious and data-dependent.
The latest statements from Miran, and Trump reinforce a possible dovish shift in the US monetary policy narrative. On the other hand, Barkin’s caution signals that the Fed is in no hurry to lower interest rates, while Miran’s nomination introduces a voice favoring further easing and a weaker dollar. Trump’s vocal pressure on the Fed for lower rates magnifies the expectation that monetary conditions will soon loosen. Collectively, these developments point to increased downward pressure on the US dollar, especially as the market anticipates possible Fed accommodation following September’s meeting. Market participants should watch for a softer dollar into the autumn, with risks tilted towards further easing if economic momentum falters.
EURUSD is higher today after mixed CPI reading and dovish comments from the new Fed nominee. Moreover, Trump resumes attacks on Jerome Powell which may put further pressure on the dollar. Source: xStation5
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