Economic calendar: ADP report, ISM, PMIs and US trade balance 💲

Today we will get another key labor market report, ISM and PMIs data for August as well as July data on the U.S. trade balance in the context of new tariffs.

Both releases will be interesting and worth watching. However, from the market’s perspective, the clearly more important publication is the ADP labor market report. Expectations point to a slower increase in private sector employment on a month-over-month basis. The data will be useful in estimating tomorrow’s NFP report, which from the Fed’s perspective will be decisively more important. Considering Jerome Powell’s recent pivot and the focus on the Fed’s second mandate — supporting employment in the economy — the NFP and ADP releases will be decisive for the upcoming FOMC meeting in just two weeks. It should also be remembered that these are the last reports before such a decision.

Shortly after the ADP release, we will also get the U.S. foreign trade balance report. Expectations call for the deficit to widen from $60bn in the prior month to nearly $75bn in July. A larger deficit may be an important signal for Trump that his current trade policy does not have a direct impact on improving U.S. trade after the short-term turbulence of recent months.

Detailed calendar of the day:

07:30 AM BST, Switzerland - Inflation Data for August:

• CPI: forecast 0.2% YoY; previous 0.2% YoY;
• CPI: forecast 0.0% MoM; previous 0.0% MoM;

09:30 AM BST, United Kingdom - PMI Data for August:

• S&P Global Construction PMI: forecast 45.2; previous 44.3;

01:15 PM BST, United States - Employment Data for August:

• ADP Nonfarm Employment Change: forecast 73K; previous 104K;

01:30 PM BST, United States - Employment Data:

• Initial Jobless Claims: forecast 230K; previous 229K;
• Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: previous 228.50K;
• Continuing Jobless Claims: forecast 1,960K; previous 1,954K;

01:30 PM BST, United States - Balance of Tade Data for July:

• Trade Balance: forecast -77.70B; previous -60.20B;
• Imports: previous 337.50B;
• Exports: previous 277.30B;

02:45 PM BST, United States - PMI Data for August:

• S&P Global Composite PMI: forecast 55.4; previous 55.1;
• S&P Global Services PMI: forecast 55.4; previous 55.7;

03:00 PM BST, United States - ISM Data for August:

• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: forecast 50.9; previous 50.1;
• ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity: previous 52.6;
• ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices: previous 69.9;
• ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders: previous 50.3;
• ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment: previous 46.4;

05:00 PM BST, United States - EIA Data:

• EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks: forecast -0.300M; previous -1.786M;
• Crude Oil Inventories: forecast -2.000M; previous -2.392M;
• Gasoline Inventories: forecast -1.000M; previous -1.236M;

05:05 PM BST, United States - FOMC Member Williams Speaks