Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs came into effect at midnight, ending a period of record-high uncertainty regarding the direction of U.S. trade policy. While Thursday brings several key macroeconomic releases, part of investors’ attention will be drawn to rising tensions between Russia and the U.S. (as well as sanctions on Kremlin's trade partners).
The most important event for the forex market will undoubtedly be the Bank of England's interest rate decision. The consensus forecasts a 25 basis point cut to 4%, despite persistent inflationary pressure in the UK.
Across the Atlantic, we’ll get the usual jobless claims and wholesale sales data from the U.S. Federal Reserve member Raphael Bostic is also scheduled to speak, recently known for his rather hawkish-conservative tone.
Earnings reports are expected from companies including: Warner Bros, Datadog, Peloton Interactive and Eli Lilly.
Economic calendar for today:
12:00 BST, UK – MPC Meeting Minutes
12:00 BST, UK – August Interest Rate Decision:
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Forecast: 4.00%; Previous: 4.25%
12:00 BST, UK – BOE MPC Vote Split (hike-hold-cut):
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Forecast: 0-1-8; Previous: 0-6-3
12:30 BST, UK – Speech by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey
13:30 BST, USA – Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2):
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Forecast: 1.6%; Previous: 6.6%
13:30 BST, USA – Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2):
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Forecast: 1.9%; Previous: -1.5%
13:30 BST, USA – Jobless Claims:
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Initial Claims: Forecast: 221K; Previous: 218K
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4-week average: Previous: 221.00K
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Continuing Claims: Forecast: 1.950M; Previous: 1.946M
15:00 BST, USA – Wholesale Sales for June:
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Previous: -0.3% MoM
15:00 BST, USA – Wholesale Inventories for June:
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Forecast: +0.2% MoM; Previous: -0.3% MoM
15:00 BST, USA – Speech by FOMC Member Raphael Bostic
15:00 BST, Canada – July Ivey PMI Report:
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Forecast: 55.2; Previous: 53.3
18:00 BST, USA – GDP Data:
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Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model (Q3): Forecast: 2.5%; Previous: 2.5%
18:00 BST, USA – 30-Year Treasury Bond Auction:
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Previous: 4.889%
21:00 BST, USA – Speech by U.S. President Donald Trump
21:30 BST, USA – Federal Reserve Balance Sheet:
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Previous: 6.643B
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