The earnings season is gaining momentum, Trump is planning to expand military action in the Middle East, and a chorus of Fed officials is taking the mic following the recent PPI data. In other words – everything is happening at once, and investors are trying to separate the fundamentals from the noise, especially amid the persistent pressure on AI-related stocks.
The just-published TSMC results failed to generate optimism in US after-hours trading, where the company's shares are currently down 1.4%. Corporate earnings will remain the primary flywheel for Wall Street volatility today. Nevertheless, it's worth paying attention to today's remarks from Fed members or the EIA natural gas report, which, alongside geopolitical events, will stir the FX and commodities markets. From a macro perspective, the retail sales reading will be crucial. The American consumer has recently been struggling with burning through savings following the latest spike in the cost of living, making this data pivotal for the inflation-focused Fed.
Key Releases from the Morning Session
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United Kingdom (GDP): The morning session was dominated by a massive data dump from the UK economy. May GDP on a monthly basis came in at 0.1% (in line with consensus). However, the quarterly figure (q/q) delivered a positive surprise, rebounding to 0.7% against a 0.5% forecast. Year-over-year (y/y), the economy grew by 1.3% (slightly below the 1.4% projection).
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United Kingdom (Industry & Trade): Solid readings came from UK manufacturing, which jumped by 2.3% y/y (vs. 1.9% expected). General industrial production fared worse, shrinking by -0.5% m/m (consensus assumed -0.1%). Meanwhile, the trade deficit narrowed significantly to -£18.66 billion (vs. -£23.3 billion expected).
Macroeconomic Calendar
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10:00 Italy - CPI Inflation (y/y) (June). Consensus: 3.0%. Previous: 3.2%.
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11:00 Eurozone - Trade Balance s.a. (May). Consensus: €2.5 bn. Previous: €1.3 bn.
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14:00 Poland - Core Inflation (ex food and energy) (y/y) (June). Consensus: 3.0%. Previous: 3.1%.
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14:15 Canada - Housing Starts (June). Consensus: 258k. Previous: 261.4k.
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14:30 USA - Retail Sales (m/m) (June). Consensus: 0.2%. Previous: 0.9%.
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14:30 USA - Retail Sales ex-Autos (m/m) (June). Consensus: -0.1%. Previous: 0.8%.
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14:30 USA - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (July). Consensus: 13. Previous: 10.3.
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14:30 USA - Initial Jobless Claims. Consensus: 216k. Previous: 215k.
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16:00 USA - Pending Home Sales (m/m) (June). Consensus: -0.5%. Previous: 3.8%.
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16:30 USA - EIA Natural Gas Storage Change. Previous: 61 bn.
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18:30 USA - Speech by FOMC Member Lorie Logan.
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19:25 USA - Speech by FOMC Member Jeffrey Schmid.
Top Wall Street Earnings
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TSMC
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UnitedHealthcare
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GE Aerospace
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Netflix
3 Markets to Watch Today
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GBPUSD (FX) – The British pound is "digesting" a very dense morning data package from the UK economy. Higher-than-expected quarterly GDP growth and strong manufacturing provide fundamental arguments for the hawkish wing of the Bank of England (BoE). The afternoon clash with US retail sales data will determine the direction of the "cable" through the end of the day.
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EURPLN (FX) – At 14:00, the June reading for Polish core inflation (excluding food and energy) will be released. The consensus assumes a drop in dynamics from 3.1% to 3.0% y/y. This data is crucial for assessing the persistence of domestic price pressures and directly impacts the rhetoric of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC), which could trigger elevated volatility on the Polish zloty and the WSE banking sector.
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Nasdaq / US100 (Indices) – At 14:30, the absolutely crucial June US retail sales report hits the markets, backed by jobless claims data and the Philadelphia Fed index. A clear slowdown in sales is expected (estimates for the core indicator even assume a negative reading of -0.1% m/m). The data will show the true shape of the American consumer—a reading that is too weak could stoke fears of a hard economic landing, hitting Wall Street sentiment hard, while a result in line with expectations should reinforce faith in autumnal rate cuts by the Fed.
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