Global equity and bond markets are eagerly awaiting the week's main event – the publication of the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for August. Yesterday's session on Wall Street ended in positive territory following dovish comments from Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller, who signaled a readiness to hold or cut interest rates if incoming data confirms a further cooling in inflationary pressures and the labor market. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a rebound in crude oil prices continue to weigh on market sentiment and maintain elevated uncertainty. Today's NFP print will be crucial in verifying this dovish narrative and determining the magnitude of potential Fed rate cuts at the upcoming September meeting.
Key Asian Session Releases
-
01:30 Japan - Household Spending y/y for July was -3.6%. Consensus: -1.6%. Previous: -3.3%. The reading came in weaker than expected, highlighting persistent weakness in private consumption.
Economic Calendar
-
08:00 Germany - Industrial Orders m/m. Consensus: 0.3%. Previous: 3.1%.
-
11:00 Eurozone - Retail Sales m/m. Consensus: 0.3%. Previous: -0.3%.
-
11:00 Eurozone - Retail Sales y/y. Consensus: 1.1%. Previous: 0.7%.
-
14:30 USA - Nonfarm Payrolls. Consensus: 55K. Previous: -23K.
-
14:30 USA - Unemployment Rate. Consensus: 4.1%. Previous: 4.1%.
-
14:30 USA - Average Hourly Earnings y/y. Consensus: 3.0%. Previous: 3.2%.
-
14:30 USA - Labor Force Participation Rate. Consensus: N/A. Previous: 61.4%.
-
14:30 Canada - Employment Change. Consensus: 15.0K. Previous: 8.2K%.
-
14:30 Canada - Unemployment Rate. Consensus: 6.4%. Previous: 6.4%.
-
19:00 USA - Baker Hughes Rig Count. Consensus: N/A. Previous: 447.
3 Markets to Watch Today:
-
EUR/USD (and US Dollar Index - DXY): The primary beneficiary of the NFP report. A reading below consensus would align with Waller's dovish remarks yesterday, placing downward pressure on the dollar and boosting EUR/USD.
-
Gold: Highly sensitive to fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields and shifting Fed rate expectations. Confirmation of further labor market cooling will provide support for the precious metal.
-
S&P 500 / US500: Equity markets will gauge whether softer labor market data is interpreted as a signal for prompt rate cuts or if it triggers broader concerns about an economic slowdown.
Daily Summary: "Heat" of the NFP Print Cools Market Sentiment ⬇️
Three Markets to Watch Next Week (04.09.2026)
🟡Gold drops sharply following strong NFP
BREAKING: NFP with a massive upside; EURUSD dips 🚨
The material on this page does not constitute as financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs.
All the information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyses published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is provided for information purposes only and should in no event be interpreted as an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of legal or fiscal nature.
Any investment decisions you make shall be based exclusively on your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs. Any decision to act on information published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is entirely at your own risk. You are solely responsible for such decisions.
If you are in doubt or are not sure that you understand a particular product, instrument, service, or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading.
Investing in OTC Derivatives carries a high degree of risk, as they are leveraged based products and often small movements in the market could lead to much larger movements in the value of your investment and this could work against you or for you. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary, seek independent advice.
