Economic calendar: PCE inflation and U.S. jobless claims 📣

Today’s macro calendar contains several key items, but it is a bit less packed than yesterday’s and tomorrow’s. We will see the U.S. PCE report—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. At the same time, jobless-claims data will be released, and after the session ends Apple and Amazon will publish their quarterly results.

At yesterday’s press conference Powell made it clear that a September rate cut can happen only if inflationary pressure eases or the labour market weakens significantly. For that reason today’s PCE release and tomorrow’s NFP look especially important. Expectations for PCE point to a month-on-month rise in prices for both the core and headline measures. Such figures would certainly not satisfy FOMC policymakers, although one more report will arrive before the next decision in September.

Detailed calendar for the day:

07:30 AM BST, Japan - BoJ Press Conference

07:45 AM BST, France - Inflation Data for June:

• French PPI: previous -0.8% MoM;
• French HICP: forecast 0.2% MoM; previous 0.4% MoM;
• French HICP: forecast 0.8% YoY; previous 0.9% YoY;
• PPI: previous 0.20% YoY;
• French CPI: forecast 1.0% YoY; previous 1.0% YoY;
• French CPI: forecast 0.3% MoM; previous 0.4% MoM;

08:55 AM BST, Germany - Employment Data for July:

• German Unemployment Change: forecast 15K; previous 11K;
• German Unemployment Rate: forecast 6.4%; previous 6.3%;

10:00 AM BST, Euro Zone - Employment Data for June:

• Unemployment Rate: forecast 6.3%; previous 6.3%;

01:00 PM BST, Germany - Inflation Data for July:

• German CPI: forecast 1.9% YoY; previous 2.0% YoY;
• German CPI: forecast 0.2% MoM; previous 0.0% MoM;
• German HICP: forecast 1.8% YoY; previous 2.0% YoY;
• German HICP: forecast 0.4% MoM; previous 0.1% MoM;

01:30 PM BST, United States - Employment Data:

• Initial Jobless Claims: forecast 222K; previous 217K;
• Continuing Jobless Claims: forecast 1,960K; previous 1,955K;
• Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: previous 224.50K;

01:30 PM BST, United States - Inflation Data for June:

• PCE price index: forecast 0.3% MoM; previous 0.1% MoM;
• PCE Price index: forecast 2.5% YoY; previous 2.3% YoY;
• Core PCE Price Index: forecast 0.3% MoM; previous 0.2% MoM;
• Core PCE Price Index: forecast 2.7% YoY; previous 2.7% YoY;
• Personal Spending: forecast 0.4% MoM; previous -0.1% MoM;
• Personal Income: forecast 0.2% MoM; previous -0.4% MoM;

02:45 PM BST, United States - PMI Data for July:

• Chicago PMI: forecast 41.9; previous 40.4;