The coming days will be rich in readings and events that may increase volatility in global markets.
We begin the week with a few secondary publications and the opening of the Sintra forum, one of the most significant central banker conferences of the year, which may yield valuable information regarding the interest rate path in the largest economies.
Tuesday brings the release of June PMI data from China and inflation data from individual countries on the Old Continent.
On Wednesday, attention will return to Sintra, Portugal, for speeches by President Lagarde and Chairman Warsh (2:00 PM).
Thursday will be the final trading day in the US market due to the long weekend marking the 250th anniversary of independence. Consequently, and quite atypically, the NFP report—the most important data from the US labour market—will be published then.
Friday will be significantly quieter, marked primarily by speeches from central bankers.
Key publications from the Asian session
Japan
May retail sales exceeded expectations, accelerating to a level unseen since November 2023. The strengthening of domestic consumption, amid persistent high price pressure and a weakening yen, may provide a significant argument for further monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Japan.
- However, a rate hike before the end of the year is not yet fully priced in (approx. 87% market-implied probability), and the USDJPY pair appears to be heading inevitably towards the 162 level.
Macroeconomic Calendar
Monday
- Spain: HICP Inflation (June)
- Time: 8:00 AM
- Consensus: 3%
- Previous reading: 3.2%
- Eurozone: Economic Sentiment Indicator
- Time: 10:00 AM
- Previous reading: 93.5
- Eurozone: Start of the Sintra forum – speech by President Lagarde
- Time: 8:00 PM
Tuesday (before 10:00 AM)
- Japan: Unemployment rate (May)
- Time: 00:30 AM
- Consensus: 2.5%
- Previous reading: 2.5%
- Japan: Industrial production (May)
- Time: 00:50 AM
- Consensus: 1.2%
- Previous reading: 2%
- Australia: RBA Minutes
- Time: 2:30 AM
- China: PMI data (June)
- Time: 2:30 AM
- Previous reading: 50.5
- UK: GDP growth (Q1 revision)
- Time: 7:00 AM
- Preliminary reading: 1.1%
- Sweden: Retail sales (May)
- Time: 7:00 AM
- Previous reading: 4.7%
- France: HICP Inflation (June)
- Time: 7:45 AM
- Consensus: 2%
- Previous reading: 2.4%
- Poland: CPI Inflation (June)
- Time: 8:30 AM
- Consensus: 2.7%
- Previous reading: 3.1%
Corporate earnings reports
- AeroVironment (AVAV.US) – AMC (After Market Close)
- Richtech Robotics (RR.US) – AMC (After Market Close)
- Nuvve Holding (NVVE.US) – AMC (After Market Close)
3 markets worth watching
- Japanese Yen (JPY): The USDJPY pair is approaching the psychological barrier of 162, which may prompt the BoJ to intervene again. Furthermore, we are receiving macroeconomic data from Japan for May, which may lead to a modest repricing of expectations regarding the future interest rate path.
- Silver: We will currently pay less than 59 dollars per troy ounce, which is nearly half as much as the January peak. The Gold/silver ratio has returned to around 70.
- Crude Oil and LNG: The durability of the US-Iran agreement was called into question over the weekend. However, the situation has calmed down somewhat, and another round of negotiations between the parties is scheduled for Tuesday.
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Michał Jóźwiak, XTB Financial Markets Analyst
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