Kecuali koreksi kecil pada 4 September, emas saat ini mencatat reli 10 sesi berturut-turut — sebuah rekor langka di pasar. Logam mulia ini sudah naik lebih dari 5% bulan ini, dengan target utama berikutnya di $4.000, hanya sekitar 10% di atas level saat ini. Reli emas didorong oleh pelemahan dolar AS yang berkelanjutan dan meningkatnya ketidakpastian seputar ekonomi AS.
Data tenaga kerja AS Jumat lalu menunjukkan pertumbuhan lapangan kerja yang sangat rendah, hanya +22 ribu, serta revisi turun pada data Juni. Tingkat pengangguran naik ke 4,3% sesuai ekspektasi, sementara pertumbuhan upah melambat. Kombinasi data ini praktis menjamin pemangkasan suku bunga The Fed dan membuka jalan menuju siklus pelonggaran baru. Pasar kini memperhitungkan hampir tiga kali pemangkasan suku bunga tahun ini — masing-masing pada sisa rapat Fed 2025. Selain itu, pasar juga mendiskon total sekitar 150 basis poin pemangkasan tambahan sebelum siklus pelonggaran berakhir, yang berarti ada potensi tiga kali pemangkasan lagi tahun depan di luar ekspektasi saat ini.
Pasar benar-benar menghargai skenario pemangkasan agresif oleh The Fed dalam beberapa bulan mendatang. Sumber: Bloomberg Finance LP
Hari ini, harga emas naik hampir 1%, menembus level $3.600 per ons. Resistensi kunci berikutnya berada di sekitar $3.644 per ons, yang bertepatan dengan retracement 138,2%.Sumber: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB
Three Markets to Watch Next Week: USDJPY, US500, OIL (01.05.2026)
Market Wrap – Data Confirms BoJ Intervention. Waiting for US ISM (05.01.2026)
Chart of the Day: Intervention on the Yen? Tokyo Challenges Speculators (01.05.2026)
Morning Wrap- Wall Street Records and Oil Stabilization (01.05.2026)
The material on this page does not constitute as financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs.
All the information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyses published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is provided for information purposes only and should in no event be interpreted as an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of legal or fiscal nature.
Any investment decisions you make shall be based exclusively on your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs. Any decision to act on information published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is entirely at your own risk. You are solely responsible for such decisions.
If you are in doubt or are not sure that you understand a particular product, instrument, service, or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading.
Investing in OTC Derivatives carries a high degree of risk, as they are leveraged based products and often small movements in the market could lead to much larger movements in the value of your investment and this could work against you or for you. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary, seek independent advice.
