The euro is surging strongly today against the U.S. dollar (USDIDX), which is falling below 98—reaching levels not seen since March 2022. The EURUSD pair is climbing to local highs around 1.155. China has imposed sanctions on members of the U.S. Congress and warned of reciprocal tariffs in response to Washington's hardline stance on the trade war.
- This scenario potentially increases the economic cost of further escalation with China. However, the main factor weakening the dollar today is Donald Trump, who threatened to remove Jerome Powell from his position as Fed Chair. Trump’s economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, confirmed these intentions on Friday.
- Meanwhile, the spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund has begun today, during which we may see revised forecasts for global GDP and inflation. Donald Trump suggests that US monetary policy should be much more dovish, with interest rates well below today levels. Markets expect that future Fed policy will be different and probably 'dovish' even among increased inflation levels.
EUR/USD Chart (D1 interval)
EURUSD today approaches levels unseen since November 2021, RSI on D1 interval suggests overbought levels at 76/
Source: xStation5
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