Gold prices (GOLD) continue their dynamic upward trend, rising by over 1% just today, thereby breaking new historical highs. Escalating tensions in the Middle East related to the planned invasion of Rafah and a pullback in the futures markets of the Old Continent are supporting capital allocation in so-called "safe havens." It's also important to remember that overall sentiment in commodity markets has been very positive since the beginning of April. Apart from gold, we are observing significant increases in oil, copper, silver, and natural gas. However, looking more broadly at the fundamentals of gold's rise, these are not as clear-cut. The decline in yields has started to price in lower chances of dovish moves from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which typically posed an obstacle to the rise of precious metals.
From a statistical standpoint, over the last 6 years, gold has just broken above +1 standard deviation of its trading range. For a 4-year range, however, it is already at +2 standard deviations.
Looking at the RSI indicator, we can see that on the W1 interval, gold last showed a similar level of textbook 'overbuying' in mid-2020. Source: xStation
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