The June US labor market report proved to be a huge disappointment for the markets. The number of new non-farm payrolls (NFP) increased by only 57 thousand, drastically below market forecasts, which anticipated a result of around 110-113 thousand. A major surprise is the revision of previous data and the decline in the leisure sector, despite the ongoing FIFA World Cup. In June alone, according to the data, employment in the Leisure sector fell by 61 thousand, and the two-month revision amounted to -67 thousand, giving us -128 thousand for the last three months!
Table of employment changes in individual sectors
The decline in the leisure sector over the last 3 months is very strong and the largest among all sectors. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP
Such a weak reading immediately hit the US dollar (USD) exchange rate, which of course works to the advantage of gold, which is once again testing the area of 4100 USD per ounce. The market clearly reduced its expectations for interest rate hikes, which is consistent with the more subdued stance of Kevin Warsh during yesterday's panel discussion in Sintra. Currently, the market is no longer pricing in a full hike in October, but only in December.
Technical analysis of gold on the daily chart (D1)
On the chart, we observe a clear price rebound, with support maintained at the level of 4000 USD per ounce. We are currently noting the highest levels since June 23, and the 38.2 retracement of the large upward wave since 2022 is being tested. If this resistance is successfully overcome, the next target will be an attack on the upper limit of the descending wedge formation around 4230 USD per ounce. Source: xStation5
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