U.S. NATGAS futures are up more than 9% today on forecasts of upcoming hot weather and higher demand compared to earlier expectations, declining production, rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and record energy demand in Texas.
The upcoming hot weather is expected to cause energy consumption in the state of Texas for air conditioning to hit an all-time record high. In addition, gas production fell slightly to 94.7 billion cubic feet at 95.1 bcfd in May and down from a record 96.1 bcfd last December. Demand is expected to rise to 90 bcfd next week from 87.1 bcfd. Despite the excess of supply over demand, it is worth remembering that we are in a period of inventory building ahead of the winter season when gas demand is highest.
Moreover, the U.S. is exporting 12.8 bcfd of liquefied gas against a capacity of 13.6 bcfd, showing that almost all of the possible gas to ship is being exported.
The gas price is near its highest in 13 years. A potential overcoming of resistance at $9.5 could lead to a quick test of the $10 area. Such levels were last seen when the United States was a net importer of gas. Source: xStation5
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