Morning wrap (03.06.2026)

Escalation of the Middle East Conflict

• Iran launched at least 10 ballistic missiles toward US military bases in Kuwait, including the Ali Al Salem Air Base.
• Attacks were also carried out against Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Dubai, leading to the temporary suspension of some flights across the Gulf region.
• The escalation followed a US strike on an Iran-linked tanker and reports of explosions near Qeshm Island.

Oil

• Brent and WTI crude prices are both up by around 1.90%, reaching 97.30 USD and 95.10 USD per barrel, respectively.

Japan: Yen, Energy, and Fiscal Pressure

• USDJPY is once again testing the 160 area, a level that previously triggered intervention by Japanese authorities in the foreign exchange market. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that Tokyo is prepared to respond appropriately, temporarily cooling speculation.
• At the same time, Japan approved a supplementary budget worth 3.1 trillion yen financed through debt issuance, aimed at subsidizing fuel and energy costs. This highlights the difficult feedback loop between war-driven energy price increases, yen weakness, and growing fiscal pressure.

ECB and Monetary Policy

• ECB member Pierre Wunsch suggested that the June monetary policy discussion would be “relatively easy” if the Middle East conflict remains unresolved. His comments point to strong arguments in favor of a rate hike later this month.

US: New Tariffs and Section 301

• The United States has proposed new tariffs of at least 10% on imports from around 60 countries as part of a forced-labor investigation conducted under Section 301. China, India, Japan, South Korea, Brazil, and Switzerland would face a higher tariff rate of 12.5%.
• The measure is intended to replace the previous tariff system that was struck down by the Supreme Court. Implementation will not occur immediately — consultations will continue until July 6, and hearings will begin on July 7.

Australia: GDP and Services PMI

• Australia’s first-quarter GDP grew by only 0.3% q/q and 2.5% y/y, below market expectations. Foreign trade was the main drag on growth. However, domestic demand remained strong, while private business investment surged by 6.0%.
• Australia’s Services PMI fell to 48.7 in May. New orders declined at the fastest pace in nearly two and a half years.

China: Services PMI

• China’s Services PMI rose to 54.4 in May, marking the fastest pace of expansion in three months. New orders increased for the 41st consecutive month, while employment also expanded again.

SpaceX: Potential IPO

• SpaceX is planning an IPO valued at approximately 75 billion USD, with an offering price of 135 USD per share. This would imply a company valuation of around 1.75 trillion USD and represent the largest public offering in history. Setting a target price before the roadshow begins signals strong confidence in investor demand.