Morning wrap (03.10.2025)

Asia-Pacific indexes are posting modest gains. Japan’s JP225 is up +1.60%, Australia’s AU200.cash gains +0.66%, and Singapore’s SG20cash adds +0.10%. Futures on Chinese indexes are slightly lower, though the cash market remains closed due to the ongoing holiday.

Trump is considering issuing checks of $1,000–2,000 for all taxpayers, funded by tariff revenues. Critics note this contradicts earlier claims that tariffs would reduce the deficit.

Governor Ueda emphasized a flexible, data-dependent approach without giving clear signals ahead of the meeting. JPY is the weakest G10 currency today, losing around 0.20–0.30%. USDJPY is up 0.33% at 147.33.

Ueda expects Japan’s economic growth to slow before rebounding, with additional uncertainty stemming from tariffs. The BOJ will maintain accommodative policy until its inflation and growth forecasts materialize.

Japan’s unemployment rate rose to 2.6% in August versus expectations of 2.4%, while the jobs-to-applicants ratio fell to 1.20. Ueda also noted early signs of consumer spending restraint due to higher food prices.

September NFP data will likely be delayed, although yesterday the BLS reported it had collected all necessary data for publication.

If the release is postponed, markets will pay closer attention today to speeches by Fed officials including Williams, Goolsbee, Miran, Logan, and Jefferson.

Investors still expect a 25 bp rate cut at the end of the month, but cautious remarks from policymakers may carry greater weight in the absence of NFP.

Australia’s PMI weakened in September: manufacturing fell to 51.4 (from 53.0), services to 52.4 (from 55.8), and composite to 52.4. All remain above 50, indicating expansion, though momentum has slowed. September activity was the weakest since June despite continued growth.