9:42 AM · 4 August 2025

Morning Wrap (04.08.2025)

  • Monday's session on stock markets looks relatively quiet. Futures contracts in Europe and the US are gaining value after significant declines on Friday. The EU50 contract is currently up 0.45%, and the US500 is up 0.38%.
  • In Asia, Chinese indices are performing particularly well. The CHN.cash and HK.cash contracts are up 1.55% and 1.45%, respectively, which may be related to tax changes in the country.
  • China has unexpectedly announced plans to tax interest income from bonds issued by the government and financial institutions. This is a significant change in the country's long-standing tax policy, which may prompt investors to reassess their bond holdings and their attractiveness.
  • US President Trump said on Sunday that he will announce the name of the new head of the BLS within the next three or four days after firing the current one. Media reports suggest this may be connected to a broader strategy to undermine the credibility of official inflation data.
  • The Melbourne Institute's private inflation index showed a sharp acceleration in July, with both core and core indices rising at the fastest pace in 19 months. Australian stock markets are closed today for a bank holiday.
  • Japan's chief trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, downplayed the recently announced U.S.-Japan trade agreement, stating that it is not a legally binding commitment and warning against taking all U.S. comments on it at face value.
  • In currency markets, fluctuations among G10 currencies were limited but the U.S. dollar regained some stability after Friday's sharp declines.
  • Canadian government sources report that Prime Minister Carney and Donald Trump will meet in the coming days to negotiate tariff hikes on Canadian goods (excluding the USMCA), which currently stand at 35%. Canada hopes for an agreement that will lower tariffs.
  • Crude oil futures started the week with a gap down after OPEC+ confirmed over the weekend that it will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September. However, these movements were reversed relatively quickly, as the market had anticipated such a hike.
  • Moderate price increases for most major projects dominate the market. Ethereum is currently adding 0.7%, while Stellar is rising 2.5%. At the same time, Bitcoin is losing 0.2%.
  • Today's macro calendar will focus on CPI data from Switzerland and durable goods orders from the US.
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