Morning wrap (05.03.2026)

USA-Israel-Iran: 

• Donald Trump rated the scale of military actions at "15 out of 10." 

• The US Senate voted to maintain military power and the possibility of further conducting the conflict in Iran by Donald Trump. The motion to limit Trump's power was rejected by a vote of 47 ("for") to 53 ("against"), along party lines (Democrats for; Republicans against). The text will be voted on today in the House of Representatives. 

• Iran was said to have fired another series of missiles toward Israel this morning. 

• The UN refugee agency stated that the conflict is generating massive population flows in the region, and 100,000 people have left Tehran itself. 

• Qatar Airways is to operate evacuation flights to European countries. The first plane is to fly from Riyadh to Frankfurt. 

US index contracts are declining again, after temporary relief during yesterday's session (US100: -0.5%; US500: -0.4%). 

Brent and WTI oil are extending gains by another 2%, similarly natural gas contracts are gaining (NATGAS: +1.7%). 

Gold is gaining 0.3% to 5157 USD, while silver is declining 1.2% to 82.70 USD. 

The dollar resumes its dominance on FX. The dollar index erased almost all of yesterday's declines (USDIDX: +0.3%). The largest losses are recorded by antipodean currencies identified with risk (AUDUSD: -0.5%, NZDUSD: -0.3%). EURUSD is testing support at 1.1600 (currently: -0.3% to 1.1599). 

Asian stock markets recorded a strong rebound on Thursday after recent declines caused by the conflict in the Middle East. The leader of the increases was the South Korean KOSPI (currently approx. +10%), Nikkei 225 also gained (approx. 1.9%), while the Chinese HSCEI returned to declines after an initial rebound (approx. 0.5%).

Broadcom shares are gaining 4.7% in after-hours trading thanks to results above consensus (revenue 19.31 billion USD) and optimistic forecasts. Revenue from the AI sector jumped by 106%, and the CEO forecasts over 100 billion USD in revenue from AI chips by 2027. Despite weaker infrastructure software results, demand for dedicated accelerators for giants such as Meta or Google is driving the company's growth.

Venezuelan state mining company Minerven entered into an agreement to sell up to 1000 kg of dore (unrefined) gold to trading company Trafigura intended for US markets. The agreement includes transport of the bullion to refineries in the USA and was developed with the participation of the US Secretary of the Interior, Doug Burgum, during his visit to Venezuela. 

China set a GDP growth target for 2026 in the range of 4.5-5%. Furthermore, the budget deficit is to be 4% of GDP, and the inflation target has been set at 2%. 

Rehn from the ECB said that the central bank must approach the issue of geopolitical shock coolly and not make premature decisions around interest rates.