Morning wrap (07.08.2025)

Wall Street closed in the green yesterday, erasing part of the losses from the end of last week (S&P 500: +0.7%, DJIA: +0.2%, Nasdaq: +1.2%). Small-cap stocks experienced a correction (Russell 2000: -0.2%). Futures on indices in Europe and the US point to continued optimism during today’s session (US100: +0.25%, US500: +0.2%, EU50: +0.45%).

Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs came into effect at midnight (e.g. UK: 10%, EU and Japan: 15%, Switzerland: 39%). The US President also threatened 100% tariffs on semiconductors, although companies investing in the US are expected to receive exemptions in this area, which reassures investors about potential supply chain disruptions.

Apple (AAPL.US) announced an additional $100 billion investment as part of a new “America Manufacturing Program.” The funds will be used to build new facilities that will produce components for Apple products. The project aims to create 20,000 new jobs over 4 years and aligns with Trump’s American manufacturing agenda. Apple shares extended their after-hours gains by another 2.5%.

Announced semiconductor tariff exemptions are fueling optimism in the Asia-Pacific session. JP225, HK.cash and CHN.cash are up around 0.5%, AU200 is trading flat, while India’s Nifty 50 continues to decline due to Trump’s retaliatory tariffs being raised to 50%.

The stagnation in Australia is mainly due to a collapse in imports (-3.1% y/y, previous: +3.3%). The trade surplus rose to 5.365 billion AUD (forecast: 3 billion).

Toyota reported a 37% drop in net income for the last quarter. The company lowered its operating income forecast from 3.8 trillion yen to 3.2 trillion, citing tariffs as the reason.

China’s trade balance dropped more than expected (from $114.7B to $98.2B; forecast: $104.7B), due to an unexpected increase in imports (+4.1% y/y, forecast: -1%, previous: +1.1%). Exports surged 7.2% (forecast: 5.6%, previous: 5.9%), indicating strong shipping activity during the ongoing trade peace with the US, which will likely be extended beyond August 12.

In the forex market, Antipodean currencies are leading (AUDUSD: +0.2%, NZDUSD: +0.25%), driven by Australia's deeper trade surplus. The US dollar index paused a 4-day decline. The Swiss franc and euro (EURUSD: 1.167) are strengthening by 0.1% against the dollar. The pound, yen, and Canadian dollar are postining marginal gains against the USD (0.3-0.7%)

Gold is rebounding by 0.25% to $3,377 per ounce, silver by 0.6% to $38.05 per ounce, and both Brent and WTI oil are recovering after 5 days of declines (approx. +0.75%) amid Trump’s pressure on importers of Russian oil. NATGAS is extending gains by 0.25%.

Sentiment in the crypto market is mixed: Bitcoin is down 0.5% to $114,670, Ethereum is up 0.15% to $3,680, while most smaller tokens are trading lower (Chainlink: -0.5%, Solana: -0.2%).