Morning wrap (11.09.2025)

Asian markets are mostly performing well. The CHN.cash index is up 0.75%, while CH50cash has risen a more pronounced 2.0%. The JP225 contract has gained 0.36%. Modest declines, however, have been observed in Australia and Singapore.

The US500 closed at a new all-time high yesterday, although initial gains were heavily limited. Rallies are continuing today at around 0.05%. The US100 is up 0.13%, after the contract ultimately closed lower yesterday.

Notably, Oracle shares saw a spectacular, near-36% increase following its earnings release.

Deutsche Bank suggests the S&P 500 could close the year at 7,000 points, citing an acceleration in US corporate earnings growth. EPS rose 10% in the second quarter, up from an 8.7% increase in the first quarter.

European index futures are posting minimal gains just ahead of the session's open. Both the DE40 and EU50 are up 0.05%.

Japan's PPI inflation came in at 2.7% year-on-year, in line with expectations, but is an increase from the previous 2.6% level. On a monthly basis, it saw a 0.2% decline, exceeding the expected 0.1% drop.

A survey on the upcoming BoJ meeting indicates interest rates are expected to remain unchanged in September.

Next year's negotiated wage increase in Japan is anticipated to be 4.8%, compared to this year's 5.25% rise.

Hawkesby of the RBNZ stated that the central projection for the New Zealand interest rate is 2.5% by the end of the year. The pace of cuts will be dependent on economic conditions. The current rate is 3.0%.

The ECB is widely expected to hold interest rates steady today. However, any mention of uncertainty regarding international trade could increase market expectations for a rate cut in December.

Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon suggests the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, with one or two more cuts to follow this year.

Today, at 2:30 PM CET, the US CPI inflation data will be a key determinant of the potential size of a US rate cut. There is speculation that a 50-basis-point cut is more likely if inflation does not rise as expected to 2.9% year-on-year, particularly after the recent disappointment in PPI figures.

The EURUSD pair is holding just below the 1.1700 level, after closing yesterday's session lower.

WTI crude oil is paring back yesterday's sharp gains, which were driven by Israel's attack on Hamas leaders in Qatar and speculation that Trump may impose tougher sanctions on Russia. WTI has now fallen back below $63.50 a barrel.

Gold is seeing marginal losses today, testing the 3630 level. Yesterday marked the highest-ever closing price, though the all-time intraday high was recorded on Tuesday.

Bitcoin is continuing its rally, having broken through a key resistance level yesterday. It is now trading at $114,200.