Morning Wrap (13.11.2025)

Thursday's session on Asian markets is relatively optimistic, with most indices trading higher on an intraday basis. At present, Japan's Nikkei is up 0.33%, South Korea's Kospi is up 0.54% and China's A50 is up 0.71%.

Nevertheless, it is worth noting that yesterday's session on Wall Street was mixed, highlighting weakness mainly in the technology sector.

The American government shutdown has come to an end – Congress passed a bill and the president signed it, restoring federal agencies to operation after a record 43-day break. The White House announced that the outstanding BLS data for September will be released shortly and that the new budget will provide government funding until the end of January.

After trading closed in the US, Susan Collins, head of the Boston Fed, clearly signalled that she currently sees no reason to continue cutting interest rates rapidly. She emphasised that stronger arguments are needed for further monetary policy easing, pointing to persistently high inflation, the impact of tariffs and limited access to data due to the partial government shutdown. As a result, as many as four voting members of the FOMC, including Collins, are suggesting that the prospects for a December rate cut are very limited.

In Japan, wholesale prices rose by 2.7% in October, exceeding market forecasts. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda declared in parliament that core inflation is rising towards 2%, which may accelerate the decision to raise interest rates. At the same time, the BOJ is signalling its readiness to respond flexibly to spikes in bond yields, including by increasing its purchases of debt securities.

The Australian dollar gained on strong labour market data – employment rose twice as much as expected, and the unemployment rate fell from its recent four-year high. The strong labour market pushes back the prospect of RBA rate cuts in December – the earliest easing is now firmly pushed back to 2026. The local stock market, on the other hand, fell to its lowest level in three months.

Data from Australia: Unemployment rate 4.3%, forecast 4.4%, previously 4.5%. Change in employment +42,200, forecast +20,000, previously +14,900. Labour force participation rate 67.0%, previously 67%. Part-time employment -13.1 thousand, previously +6.3 thousand. Full-time employment +55.3 thousand, previously +8.7 thousand.

Volatility remained limited on the currency market, with most major currency pairs fluctuating within narrow ranges. The USD/JPY exchange rate temporarily approached 155.00, before correcting slightly. The AUD is performing best overall, while declines in the broader market are most evident in the NZD.

A private API inventory survey indicates a smaller-than-expected increase in US crude oil inventories. Crude + 1.3 million barrels against expectations of 1.7 million barrels.