Morning wrap (20.02.2026)

Oil climbed to six-month highs and global equities came under pressure as rising tensions around Iran undermined risk appetite. Brent rose 0.5% to $72 per barrel after Donald Trump said Iran has at most 15 days to reach a nuclear deal, and the US deployed additional Marine forces to the Middle East. The weekly gain in oil now exceeds 6%.
Beyond geopolitics, investors will focus on Friday’s US releases on economic activity and PCE inflation. Attention has intensified after minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting confirmed policymakers’ ongoing concerns about price pressures. The US Supreme Court has also set Friday as another opinion day related to tariff measures, and global markets are awaiting a decision on this front.
In Asian equities, caution prevailed: the broad MSCI Asia index fell 0.4% following similar declines on Wall Street. At the same time, US and European equity-index futures are up roughly 0.3%, suggesting some stabilization in sentiment after the initial wave of risk aversion.
South Korea continues to stand out globally: the local equity market is up 2%, reinforcing its position as the best-performing stock market worldwide year-to-date. Gains are being consistently driven by Samsung and SK Hynix, which are benefiting from renewed tightness in the memory-chip market.
The US dollar is on track for its best week in four months, as markets continue to scale back expectations for future Fed rate cuts. Demand for safe-haven assets remains a key support for the greenback amid elevated geopolitical risk, while higher oil prices raise the risk of a return in inflation pressures and a prolonged Fed pause.
Donald Trump announced that he is "directing the Secretary of War, and other relevant Departments and Agencies, to begin the process of identifying and releasing Government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and unidentified flying objects (UFOs)."

OIL (chart, D1)

Oil has reacted twice to support in the $58–60 per barrel area and is now up roughly 20% from those lows. Previously, after breaking above the EMA200 exponential moving average, prices advanced in December 2024 and again in June 2025. However, on both occasions the rallies ultimately faded, with sellers regaining control of the market.

Source: xStation5

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