Morning wrap (29.01.2026)

Gold has surged again to fresh record highs, breaking through the 5,400 and 5,500 levels and reaching as high as $5,580 per ounce. Today’s gain stands at 3%, while YTD performance has reached 29%, marking the strongest start to a year in more than 30 years.

Other precious metals are rallying alongside gold. Silver is also up 3%, breaking above $120 per ounce. Platinum gains 3.50%, while palladium rises 2.30%.

Several banks have begun discussing $6,000/oz scenarios for 2026. Deutsche Bank has even outlined a bullish case toward $6,900, while SocGen is also targeting $6,000 and suggests this may be a conservative outlook.

The US dollar has returned to a sell-off following yesterday’s Fed decision. The dollar index is down around 0.30% on the daily timeframe. EURUSD gains 0.26%, while USDJPY falls 0.25%.

The strongest G10 currency today is the Australian dollar, gaining roughly 0.30–0.40% against peers.

AUD strength is being driven by rising expectations of an RBA move, as well as positive headlines out of China. The key macro anchor remains core trimmed mean inflation at 0.9% q/q, which continues to fuel the rate hike debate.

All four major Australian banks now expect a 25 bp rate hike next week, while Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank still forecast no change, arguing the inflation surprise is not decisive enough.

Australia’s export prices rebounded by +3.2% q/q (after -0.9%), while import prices rose +0.9% q/q (vs. expectations of -0.2%). This marks an improvement in the terms of trade, which typically also supports the AUD.

Chinese property developer stocks surged after reports that authorities may scrap mandatory reporting under the “three red lines” leverage framework. This is being interpreted as a tangible easing of regulatory policy, improving short-term access to financing for developers. The move boosted sentiment toward China and provided additional support to the AUD. Chinese equity indices are up between 0.90% and 1.60%.

Tesla is up 2.16% following its quarterly earnings release. The company announced plans to phase out production of the Model S and X next quarter and to retool the Fremont factory for humanoid robot production.

Tesla’s adjusted EPS beat expectations ($0.50 vs $0.45), revenues came in slightly below forecasts ($24.90bn vs $25.11bn), while gross margin surprised to the upside (20.1% vs 17.1%).

Microsoft is down more than 6% after earnings, despite beating expectations on both revenue ($81.27bn vs $80.31bn) and EPS ($4.14 vs $3.92). The Intelligent Cloud segment also exceeded forecasts ($32.91bn vs $32.39bn). Azure grew 38% y/y ex-FX, and the commercial remaining performance obligation (RPO) of $625bn points to a very strong future revenue base.

Meta is up 6.60% after its quarterly results. The company beat on EPS ($8.88 vs $8.19) and revenue ($59.89bn vs $58.42bn), with advertising revenue also above expectations ($58.14bn vs $56.79bn). The Family of Apps segment drove performance, while Reality Labs losses widened.