Morning Wrap: Indices soften after recent rebound, gold drops below 4000 USD (01.07.2026)

🇺🇸 US Equities & Market Sentiment

• US stock futures soften slightly ahead of the European open, pausing after the last two sessions driven by a tech-led recovery. Nasdaq 100 (US100) and Russell 2000 (US2000) futures are both down 0.2%, while the S&P 500 (US500) and Dow Jones (US30) tick 0.15% and 0.1% lower, respectively. Europe's Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50) follows suit, dropping 0.2%.

• Nike beats estimates on tariff refunds but disappoints with guidance: Nike posted an adjusted EPS of 20 cents (vs. 13 cents expected) and revenue of $10.97 billion. Results were boosted by a $986 million US tariff refund. However, the stock tumbled up to 8% post-market due to a drop in China sales (-12%), a weaker print in the US, and guidance for flattish earnings in the coming quarters. Shares are currently trading 3.3% lower in pre-market activity.

🌏 Asian & Pacific Markets

• Asian indices trade directionless, caught between valuation anxieties in the AI infrastructure sector and positive momentum from Wall Street. While regional markets just wrapped up their best quarter in 17 years, investor focus is shifting to Thursday’s key US labor market data (NFP) and the probability of a September US rate hike (currently priced at 60%).

• Individual markets showed wide performance gaps amid highly volatile quarter-end capital flows. Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 1.79%, supported by gains in the semiconductor sector. Meanwhile, South Korea's KOSPI bounced 1.52% following last week's sharp sell-off, though local tech stocks still face technical resistance despite a near-100% gain since the start of 2026.

🌍 Economics & Central Banks

• Tankan report beats expectations, supporting a hawkish Bank of Japan: The June Tankan survey revealed a strong rise in Japanese business confidence—the big manufacturers' index rose to +22 (vs. 16 expected), while the services sector gauge hit +37. Crucially for the BoJ's tightening cycle, firms raised their year-ahead inflation expectations to 2.7% and 5-year views to 2.6%. Large companies also boosted capital expenditure (capex) plans by 11.5%, cementing the case for faster rate hikes despite firms basing their financial plans on a stale exchange rate of 152.57 yen per dollar.

• China's manufacturing PMI holds in expansion territory at 51.7: The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI eased marginally from May's 51.8 to 51.7 in June, marking the seventh consecutive month of sector expansion. Total new orders rose for a 13th month, driving the strongest quarterly average since late 2020. Notably, input cost inflation slowed to a 5-month low, easing margin pressures, while employment posted its fastest growth since August 2023.

• ECB officials soften tone amid easing energy pressures: Governing Council members Boštjan Dolenc and Mārtiņš Kazaks struck a noticeably less urgent tone regarding future monetary policy steps. Pointing to a lack of clear second-round inflation effects and stabilizing oil prices, Dolenc suggested the ECB could hold steady until September. Kazaks added that consecutive hikes are no longer pressing, reducing the immediate need for a forceful inflation response.

💱 Foreign Exchange (FX)

• Dollar index breaks out of correction as Australian dollar slides: The dollar index (USDIDX) is up 0.15% after a highly volatile session, breaking higher out of its local corrective move after finding solid support near the 101.500 level. The Australian dollar is weakening against all G10 peers, reacting to the slightly softer-than-expected manufacturing data from China (AUDUSD: -0.3%). Meanwhile, yen weakness persists, pushing USDJPY up 0.15%, while EURUSD slips 0.1% to 1.1410.

🛢️ Commodities, Energy & Metals

• Precious metals under dollar pressure, gold breaks $4,000 support: Gold futures (GOLD) collapsed below a crucial psychological floor, losing 0.8% to trade at $3,965/oz. Silver (SILVER) is feeling an even harsher sting, slumping 1.55% to lock in at $57.70/oz.

• Crude oil holds steady within a tight volatility range: Brent crude futures (OIL) are down a symbolic 0.2%, keeping global prices firmly anchored within the narrow $72 to $76 per barrel channel that has contained price action for the past five consecutive sessions.