- Oil prices remain elevated due to supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with WTI trading around $90/bbl and Brent at approximately $84/bbl. Crude attempted to cap its gains, but on the 6th day of the invasion, the rally continues, bringing the total increase since late February to 15%.
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Tankers are rerouting or stationary following Iranian attacks on vessels; experts warn of further price spikes should the conflict persist.
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War enters day 6: US/Israeli forces are neutralizing Iranian missile launchers and drones (with a 90% drop in attack frequency), while Iran expands its strikes to Azerbaijan and other regional targets.
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Death toll in Iran exceeds 1,200 following 1,300 air strikes; tensions are mounting as Trump signals that operations will continue for weeks, hinting at a potential follow-up strike after the selection of a new Supreme Leader.
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Qatar LNG indicates plans to lease its global fleet of carriers following the recent shutdown of domestic production. China remains hopeful that Iran will soon grant passage to LNG vessels, as Beijing is the region's largest buyer, sourcing from Iran, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia alike.
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The decision to lease vessels after the Ras Laffan shutdown suggests preparations for a prolonged disruption, potentially lasting weeks or months.
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To alleviate pressure on the oil market, the United States has granted India a 30-day waiver on additional crude oil import tariffs.
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Currently, tankers owned by China or Iran are reportedly allowed passage through the strait, though this may be limited to isolated units.
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Trump indicates that Iran has reached out regarding a ceasefire, though he maintains that the window for negotiations is several weeks away. This coming weekend will be pivotal; should credible reports of talks emerge, oil prices could retreat by 5-10%. Otherwise, a further upside gap is likely.
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Gold returns above $5,100 per ounce following reports of significant Chinese buying, though it remains relatively low after the sharp declines seen on March 3.
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US indices erased most of the March 4 rebound yesterday, but a fresh attempt at a recovery is underway today. The US500 is up 0.3%, with the US100 gaining nearly 0.5%.
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Asian equities are posting marginal gains after an earlier slump; markets in Israel and Saudi Arabia are also up, while exchanges in the UAE and Qatar remain closed.
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Despite the intraday recovery, Asian indices are on track to end the week with their worst performance since March 2020.
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Today’s calendar features the pivotal NFP report. Sentiment remains resilient following recent ADP data, yet expectations for US rate cuts are receding due to the surge in energy prices.
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