Before the US market opens, Nasdaq 100 (US100) futures are trading lower, driven mainly by rising oil prices, which rebounded to $98 per barrel after falling to $91 yesterday. US100 has dropped below 24,000 points, while US 10-year Treasury yields have returned to around 5%, and the prospect of a quick resolution to the Middle East crisis still appears distant.
- Risk appetite, measured by retail investors’ participation in equity purchases, has fallen to around 8% — the lowest level since Q3 2024 — compared to 15% in November 2025 (and around 11.5% at the peak of the 2021 “meme” rally). It is currently at levels seen during the 2020 and 2022 bear markets.
- The US Marine Corps is expected to reach Iran on Friday, and Donald Trump gave Iran five days to enter negotiations yesterday, which could further fuel risk-off sentiment toward the end of the week amid concerns about a potential escalation in tensions between Washington and Tehran over the coming weekend.
US100 (D1 interval)
The technical outlook for US100 appears to be deteriorating. If buyers fail to push the index above the 200-session EMA (red line, 24,500 points), selling pressure may increase, potentially dragging the index down toward the 23,000 level.
Source: xStation5
OIL (D1 interval)
Oil cooled significantly yesterday and is now attempting to move back above $100 per barrel. The RSI stands at 61 and eased notably during the previous session. Key long-term support levels can be found at $91 — defined by recent price reactions — as well as at $84 and $72 (the EMA50 and EMA200 moving averages).
Source: xStation5
Looking at past oil market reactions to geopolitical events, the current rally is only really surpassed by the Gulf War in the early 1990s. Supply-side risks today appear at least comparable, and even then the move was not parabolic - it was preceded by sharp corrections.
Źródło: XTB Research
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